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Vol 19, No 4 (2019)

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS

5-13 114
Abstract
The study presented in the article seems rather relevant due to the fact that the problem of indebtedness in the eurozone members has not been solved yet, and these countries still continue to accumulate debts. Therefore, the eurozone members are expected to find effective ways to restore competitiveness after the crisis of 2009-2012 without exiting the single currency agreement. The research is aimed at encompassing the relations which come into being as a result of credit use, money circulation, and money transfer payments. Consideration of these issues seems very important since it can help restore the loss of monetary independence. The subject of the article is the ways to denominate debt securities in the currency units under the control of the national governments and the central bank. The main purpose of the paper is to develop the approaches to parallel circulation of a single currency unit which can be devalued to solve the debt problems. The practical significance of the article lies in the possibility to use the European experience in solving the problems of common currency circulation in the process of Eurasian currency and financial integration. In terms of economic theory, the results and general outcomes of the work are important for the development of a concept to rationalize monetary policy and money circulation. In conclusion, the article proposes a parallel currency circulation regime which allows a member country of the currency agreement to stay in the common currency area and retain some functions of the monetary policy which were sacrificed due to the creation and operation of the common central bank.

MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS

14-30 155
Abstract
The article provides quantitive evaluation of the world stock markets with the “Return-Risk” Model, which is based on the fundamental principles of the porfolio theory. The analysis undertaken is aimed at revealing the most attractive world stock markets in regard to shaping of the future investment policy in the short term as well as determining the countries which securities (stocks, bonds, financial derivatives, etc.) should be included into the extended diversified investment portfolio. In other words, the world stock markets under study are not only considered as the status displays of the national economies of the corresponding countries but also as the potential instruments for investment portfolios. The synthesized “Return-Risk” Model is applicable in investment practice. The model shows that the attempt of 1 % increase in return leads to the increase of risk by 3 %. The computing experiments to testify the proposed model on independent material (verification of the model with permanent structure based on sliding verification) proved its practical applicability for revealing the leading indexes and dynamics estimate of their return within the closest investment horizon, with the win-loss ratio accounting for over three to one (3,2 : 1). The average monthly return is 1,1 % per tool.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

31-37 93
Abstract
The author discusses the issues of implementation of target management approaches to the long-term development of regions of the Russian Federation. The success of apply-ing such approaches to planning and management at the regional level depends on a choice of priorities and ratio between and sequence of development of programs and projects in the planning process, the quality of the techniques applied, and a financial support of the planned results. The article shows that a project approach is of priority for the development of Russian regional policy. Regional programs are a set of basic projects that are not always aimed at developing territories and domestic markets. Our analysis of the strategic documents of the Russian Government shows that most of Siberian regions are not considered as strategically important ones for the country. These facts together with the ongoing centralization of financial resources at the level of the Federal center are key obstacles in implementing development programs for Siberia and units of the Russian Federation's located in Siberia as well as those for the Russian Far East.
38-51 108
Abstract
The paper studies a profound change in the Russian cluster policy at the federal level based on the analysis of regulatory framework. The work demonstrates virtual abandoning of cluster policies in all areas, i.e. winding-up direct support for industrial cluster projects and failure to start funding complex investment projects for the development of innovative territorial clusters which has even lost their normative basis for financing as well as to backup regional cluster development centers. The main reason for such a reverse is the lack of cooperation among the domestic clusters. At the same time, the main aim of the government efforts in the field of cluster formation and other related processes - stimulation of cooperation projects - has remained unchanged. In order to avoid setbacks in other initiatives for development of such cooperation, it seems advisable to introduce an extended classification of joint cluster projects, which in many ways determines the specifics of partnership relations. The proposed classification is based on the type of connectivity among the participants, the symmetry of the alliances and the organizational form of project implementation. It is shown that the domestic cluster policy deals with the most challenging type of cooperative projects.
52-65 124
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to substantiate the need and the possibility of diversification of the Russian regional economic system, including resources-extractive regions, in the form of a gradual transformational transition to the knowledge economy. The research is conducted on the basis of systematic approach. The work resulted in the selection of a new transformation model of the regional economic system, i.e. diversification based on the development of the knowledge economy, with the diversification index for this model being proposed. Besides, the positive impact of the level of development of the knowledge economy in the region on the diversification of its economic structure was proved and the increase in the level of diversification of the economy of the resource-extractive region with the development of the knowledge economy infrastructure was confirmed. The scope of practical application of the results is the development of regional socio-economic policy on the basis of the proposed approach to the diversification of the regional economic system in the process of its long-term transformation towards the establishment of the knowledge economy.
66-86 103
Abstract
Specific projects initiated by higher school and high-tech business is the scientific and technological basis of the Program for the development of Novosibirsk Scientific Center (Akademgorodok 2.0) as a territory with high concentration of research and development institutions. The article presents general information on scientific, infrastructural and innovative projects of the Program, their classification by key indicators, promotion and scientific-organizational support of projects. The article proposes the measures to make higher education in Novosibirsk more attractive and competitive in both international and Russian education services markets as the most important direction of implementation of the Program “Akademgorodok 2.0”. The work focuses on the necessity to form new educational programs and their coordination with the promising research and scientific developments implemented within the framework of the Program “Akademgorodok 2.0”. The authors express their position on the proposals to organize “Big NSU” by including a number of academic institutions of the NSC of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS

87-103 132
Abstract
The article extends the results of Honkapohja and Mitra (2006) and Kolyuzhnov (2011) and provides criteria and sufficient conditions for stability in a structurally heterogeneous economy under heterogeneous adaptive learning of agents. The criteria for stability under heterogeneous mixed RLS/SG learning for four classes of models - without lags and with lags of the endogenous variable and with t or t - 1 - dating of expectations - and sufficient conditions for stability for the cases of the diagonal structure of the shock process behavior or the heterogeneous RLS learning are presented in terms of the corresponding Jacobian matrices. In addition, the study presents a very useful criterion for the stability for all types of models under mixed RLS/SG learning with equal degrees of inertia for each type of learning algorithm in terms of stability of a suitably defined average economy with two agents. The derived criteria and sufficient conditions for stability are based on the results of the theory of stochastic approximation and are presented in terms of mixture of structural and learning heterogeneity, which are essential to get sufficient and necessary conditions for stability irrespective of heterogeneity in learning presented in terms of E-stability of suitably defined aggregate economies, the “same sign” conditions and the E -stability of a suitably defined average economy and its sub-economies. The fundamental nature of the approach adopted in the paper makes it possible to apply the results to a vast majority of the existing and prospective linear and linearized economic models (including estimated DSGE models) with adaptive learning of agents.
104-113 145
Abstract
With the turbulence in global trade and the necessity to develop non-commodity exports in Russia, the choice of an effective strategy for exporters’ conduct in the food market is becoming vitally important these days. Agent-based models simulating the behavior of decentralized self-learning agents with their own goals and capabilities can be used as the tools for analyzing and predicting market movements. The paper presents the results of the agent-based approach to market modeling by the example of barley, which is one of the top commodity items of the Russian food exports on the basis of FAOSTAT and Rosstat data for the period 1997-2017. As a result of the study, an agent-based model of the world barley market was built, and a series of calculated experiments was carried out in the AnyLogic development environment with the changes in such factors as the level of global demand, the amount of customs duties, the exporting companies’ funds in order to determine the strategic conduct of the exporting agents taking into account the limited rationality of the participants in communicative interaction. The proposed approach develops modern theory of consumer behavior and simulation, and the results of the study can be used in the formation of development programs for the Russian agro-food exports.
114-126 111
Abstract
A step-by-step construction of data harmonized models makes it possible to gradually eliminate unnecessary information in terms of forest complex and at the same time to increase the functionality necessary for further calculations, with each model in the complex used for certain purposes contributing to the calculations of the forest complex. This article provides a step-by-step construction of the Optimization Interregional Intersectoral Model (OIIM) modification for the forest complex. The proposed stages contain a brief description of transition from the national economic model in value terms (OIIM) to the sectoral production-transport type model of the forest complex in volume terms (PTM-FC). The obtained results based on the industry model can be used to analyze the current economic situation, identify the gaps in the industry and project its future development. Besides, the article contains the results of preliminary calculations based on point industry model of the forest complex (PIM-FC), which were used to outline the development scenarios for forest complex until 2030 as described in 2030 Forestry Development Strategy. The analysis of the calculation data shows that the estimate of the domestic market and the volume of exports in 2030 Forestry Development Strategy seems to be overestimated; as a result, the growth rate set out therein may well be jeopardized.

INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS

127-139 138
Abstract
The article raises the issues on the abuse of the right to perform abortions, which has always been relevant for the modern society. The article gives the historical outline of the Russian demographic policy for legalizing (and/or sponsoring) abortion and analyzes possible positive/negative socio-economic consequences thereof. The work presents a brief overview of the formation of modern cultural and religious ethos of the contemporary Russia, which inter alia is supposed to influence the indicator under study. The article puts forward a hypothesis which is tested on religious composition data of the Russian population and on the quantitative level of abortions by the regions for 2 periods. On the basis of regression analysis, it can be concluded that today there is an existing link between the share of atheists in the modern society and the quantitative abortion rate in the Russian Federation.

METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH

140-152 159
Abstract
The study of globalization is one of the most relevant topics in the scientific community today. However, the most research is devoted to the study of global processes at the macro level, with the issues on how globalization influences an individual and local territorial communities being paid less attention to. Scientific novelty of the work is a proposed approach to study the influence of global processes at the meso-level, i.e. an intermediate level between an individual and the states. Studying the responds of the local residents on how the global processes transform their daily lives, allows us to assess the stability of social associations of people, which has a direct impact on the reproduction process of the local territorial community. The purpose of the study is to analyze the influence of global processes on the changes in the reproduction process of a local territorial community. The youth is one of the main actors who are highly influenced by the global processes. Besides, young people are able to identify the areas for the future development of their territories of residence. A series of focus groups was conducted in order to study the opinions of young people about the impact of global processes on their territory of residence. The results of the study show that the connection with the territory of residence for different groups of young people may vary. The study also revealed the presence of hybrid global-local identity of the young people, which implies both their active inclusion in the processes of globalization and the feeling of being part of a local community. This type of identity can be one of the ways to preserve the integrity of the community.


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ISSN 2542-0429 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)