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Vol 16, No 4 (2016)

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS

5–19 82
Abstract

This paper is concerned with the methodological issues of economic policy elaboration and optimization of economic policy instruments’ parameters. Actuality of this research is provided by growing complexity of social and economic systems, important state role in their functioning as well as multi-targets of economic policy with limited number of instruments. Considering a big variety of internal and external restrictions of social and economic development of modern Russia it has wide range of applications.

Extension of the dynamic econometric general equilibrium input-output model of the Russian economy with development of the sub-model of economic policy optimization is a key purpose of this study. The sub-model of economic policy optimization allows estimating impact of economic policy measures on target indicators as well as defining optimal values of their parameters. For this purpose, we extend Robert Mundell’s approach by considering dynamic optimization and wider range of economic policy targets and measures. Use of general equilibrium input-output model allows considering impact of economic policy on different aggregate markets and sectors.

Approbation of suggested approach allows us to develop multi-variant forecast for the Russian economy for 2016–2020, define optimal values of monetary policy parameters and compare considered variants by values of social losses. The obtained results could be further used in theoretical as well as applied researches concerned with issues of economic policy elaboration and forecasting of social and economic development.

20–38 97
Abstract

The paper aims at investigating the joint distribution of currency rates using HAC, HKC and Vine copulas in several time periods. Models were constructed using Archimedean copulas including Gumbel-Hougaard, Joe BB1 and Frank copulas, and their parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood. The best models were built using hierarchical Archimedean copulas and the worst were obtained with vine copulas. In comparison with the HAC, the main advantage of hierarchical Kendall copulas is the possibility to use a two-parameter copula Joe BB1. The best models were obtained with Frank copula, while Gumbel-Hougaard copula has shown a decent result only in the third period. Additionally, in this paper was made an attempt to get the forecast of exchange rates using Kendall’s and Marshall-Olkin’s algorithms. The most accurate forecast was obtained with Gumbel-Hougaard copula for euro and franc.

MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS

39–47 71
Abstract

The obtained forecasts, which are produced by the national economy model in value terms can be used in the industry models. In this paper authors show one of the approaches how it can be done. Initially, the basic Optimization Inter-Regional Cross-Industry Model (OMMM: 40 industry, 10 regions) considers in detail one industry and other complementary industries are aggregated. In our work we consider 11 forest industries and 12 non-forest industries, which form a national economic background. Aggregation is performed on the optimal solution of the original base model. Thus, in accordance with the theory of mutual problems the model is modified into production transportation problem with the criterion of cost minimization. Based on this model, we calculate external load on the industry in the value terms.

Using information from industries, Statistics departments, and expert estimates, this external load is translated from value terms into the physical indicators, which is then used in the form of external demand in the proposed industrial model. Industrial model has 20 types of forest materials and products, and includes a possibility of inter-regional transport, as well as export and import of forest products. A separate block describes the use of existing capacities and the possibility of their growth. The forecast which is built using such model takes into account all national economic links and can be used in the development of the Development Strategy of industrial complex in the medium term.

48–66 74
Abstract

The article highlights main factors affecting productivity of enterprises in the defense industry.With the elimination of a number of factors, we determined functional dependence form betweenthe change in productivity (at the company level in comparison to the industry average) and relativewages (at the company level in comparison to the industry average taking into account regional factor). It is shown that dependence is of exponential character and is marked by inelasticity of productivitywith respect to wages. This means that the growth of employees’ wages in comparison to averagelevels for the industry to which the enterprise belongs, as well as average levels for the federalsubject in which the enterprise is located, leads to workforce productivity increase, however, therate of increase slows down with further wage growth. Levels of wage growth (in relation to industryaverages adjusted for regional factor) maximizing enterprises’ target values are determined withspecific features of such enterprises (manufacturing of both military and civilian products) takeninto account.

67–79 83
Abstract

Reliability and financial stability of a commercial bank are based on economic interests of its stakeholders – influence groups. The main influence groups of a bank – Shareholders, Board of management, Administration and Responsible executives, Staff members, Depositors, Loan debtors, Clients – have competing economic interests, which are necessary to be taken into account and are to be realized in a balanced way in the process of strategic management. Quantitative outcomes of Strategy 2015 implementation in terms of its system-based stability, which is determinated by sufficient capital’s data, day-to-day liquidity as well as risk realization level of active bank transactions, turned out to be insufficient but expectable.

The approach to definition of economic nature of the category “Financial stability” relating to the joint-stock bank, which is demonstrated with the use of the analog model of its development affected by influence groups, is represented. Such basic vectors of strategic development of the joint-stock bank as “Aggressive growth”, “Dumping”, “Conservatism”, “Evolutionary growth” were examined and analyzed. Operating results of a banking sector, which statistically reflect the effect of depositors’ and loan debtors’ forces on the bank, show stronger dependence on individual and corporate depositors. Statement on suitability and possibility of quantitative evaluation of a bank’s financial stability (reliability) in indicator set “Return on assets – Liquidity – Risks”.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

80–92 154
Abstract

The article is devoted to definition of methods and techniques to identify priorities of socioeconomic development, applicable at the Federal level. The initial data for the study was strategic planning documents, as well as the decrees, resolutions and orders of the Executive authorities of the Russian Federation and of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, defining the strategic priorities of socio-economic development in the 20-year period. The article presents the defining the term ‘priorities of economic and development’ and the approaches to their formation, which are represented at Russia’s normative acts and other federal documents. The content analysis of priorities in the strategic planning documents has allowed drawing the typology of economic and social development priorities of the Russian Federation. The authors determined the mechanism of creating the priorities under the influence of main endogenous (foreign trade, foreign policy, macro, etc.) and exogenous (the interests of business, communities, regional authorities) factors which could be recommended for consideration at the strategy developing process at federal level.

93–108 125
Abstract

The paper analyzes the possibilities and limitations for the forming clusters in the conditions of Russia. Clusters are seen as a form of local production systems (LPS). A brief treatment of LPS and their main features are highlighted. Clusters are seen as a form of local production systems. A brief treatment of LPS and their main features are highlighted. The basic advantages of clusters as a form of organization of production on the territory are considered. The main factors, by means of which is achieved the strengthening of the competitiveness at the cluster, are describes. Characteristics of cluster policy in the Russian Federation are considered. The main directions of state support for the formation of clusters are considered. Differences between of approach to the creation of modern Russian clusters and concept of the formation of territorial-production complexes that have received wide development in the Soviet economy are shown. Continuity of ideas TPK and clusters marked. On the example of the Lower Angara region opportunities to simulate approach to the exploitation and development based on the principles of the cluster concept, combined with the ideas of TPK concept and program-oriented approach are shown.

MANAGEMENT

109–119 516
Abstract

The article examines tendencies of the development of new organizational forms of partnership and marks several problems of their usage in Russian conditions by the example of the Novosibirsk region. Modern forms of networking and partnership of commercial companies and universities, research institutes and other organizations, such as clusters, strategic alliances, technology platforms, business ecosystems and other, are focused on the development of new market opportunities and gaining competitive advantage through the sharing of assets and expertise.

Two groups of strategic partnership initiatives in the business were emphasized: some initiatives are shown by the state, while some come from the companies. It has been shown that the development of digital technologies, which allows to establish connection between geographically separated participants, promotes the formation of new partnership tools, such as the technology platforms and business ecosystems built on their basis.

120–130 122
Abstract

The article discusses the role and position of accounting in the planning, forecasting and decision making. From the point of view of the role of modeling shown the three levels of models: modeling in mind, based on semi-structured data; modeling in mind, based on qualitative information organized; and tool-modeling prediction. Described the evaluation of accounting information as a descriptive model of economic processes of the organization. Included list of recommendations of practical value to the development of the accounting model of economic processes.

131–143 107
Abstract

Implementation of the basic principle of the concept of the sustainable development consisting in need of ensuring cost efficiency, social justice and an ecological safety is one of modern requirements to activities of the enterprise. According to the designated purposes within general stability were allocated functional, financial and economic, social and ecological stability of the enterprise. Process of management of stability assumes the choice and adaptation of the corresponding methods and technologies.

For the purpose of development of methodology of management of stability of the enterprise the approach to assessment of effectiveness of management based on use of indicators of organizational and labor capacities of the enterprise is offered. A number of offers was made on the basis of results of the researches conducted by the author in the motor transportation enterprises of St. Petersburg in 2014.

Methodical approaches to assessment of the indicators characterizing social stability of the entity are given in article. The role of methods of management of organizational changes, in particular, of methods of overcoming resistance of personnel, in the course of ensuring social stability of the enterprise is designated.



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ISSN 2542-0429 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)