Vol 21, No 1 (2021)
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
5-28 328
Abstract
The significant progress observed in the field of artificial economy opens up new possibilities for modeling economic growth. Agent-based models (ABM) allow leaving the concept of a representative agent in the past and linking investment decisions of economic agents at the micro level with long-term macroeconomic growth. Modern ABMs offer new algorithms for modeling expectations, agent interaction, technical progress, pricing, and production planning. Our article analyzes the current state of modeling investment in fixed assets in operating macroeconomic ABMs. The subject of the review is the families of models Eurace, CATS, KS, Jamel, Lagom. The authors also present the investment block of the agent-based multiregional input-output model (ABMIOM) being developed. Comparative analysis demonstrates that modern ABMs, as a rule, implement the principle of stock-flow consistency. Modeling the investment process requires detailing the commodity nomenclature, so that the initially adopted two-sector division into investment and consumer goods is replaced by more detailed structures, which gives rise to the problem of accounting for inter-sectoral relations in production and consumption. The Leontief production function copes with this problem, which is confirmed by its widespread use in ABM. The size of firms' investments is often derived from the need to expand capacity in accordance with the current production plan, so that planning turns out to be myopic, and long-term aspects in ABM are still largely unrealized. Nevertheless, already now ABMs reproduce many phenomena associated with the economic cycle. The developed ABMIOM provides horizontal consistency of cash flows between agents and analysis of results using input-output tables. ABMIOM represents a step forward in reflecting intersectoral and interregional flows. The model reproduces the growth and contraction of the economy as a result of independent investment decisions of individual firms and households, which is reflected in the sectoral and spatial structure of the economy. Further development of ABMIOM is associated with the modeling of savings, intrafirm finance, money market, innovation and technical progress.
29-41 110
Abstract
The article considers the possibility of calculating indicators of the theoretical cost category using modern inter-industry interregional tools for forecasting economic development. The principles of displaying production relationships implemented in them and the resulting calculated indicators in the cost dimension do not contradict the categories of classical political economy. In parallel, the concept of redistribution of nominal value by means of Finance between interconnected producers and consumers was introduced when applying the intersectoral approach. The paper provides an example of calculations. The usual financial statements are used as an instrumental basis, but the number of employees is set as an input measure of all costs. As a result, all calculated data: prices (aggregated prices), indices of their changes in dynamics, current financial flows are recalculated in labor costs. The tables below represent the corresponding indicators aggregated by region. Despite the proximity of the financial and cost categories, the use of cost characteristics in financial instruments to calculate them affects the quantitative results to a certain extent. In particular, comparison of indicators of forecasts of financial and cost statements of tasks connected with one initial base of tasks of material composition shows the following. The dynamics of changes in the total income of the population, budgets, volume of loans, etc. for indicators in value units are overwhelmingly lower than the corresponding values of the mentioned purely financial task. This suggests that the rates calculated in current prices (the financial task) have a greater inflationary impact than similar indicators calculated in value units. Or, regional differentiation of calculated units of product value above the corresponding indices of consolidated prices of purely financial statements. To a certain extent, this is due to the fact that the task adopted assumptions for a certain alignment of economic activity conditions by region due to the differentiation of Federal taxes.
MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
42-58 171
Abstract
The article analyzes consumer practices and strategies of elderly, substantiates the choice of a complex criterion for typologizing consumption strategies, including the main key indicators - economic and psychological characteristics of the choice of a course of action, self-assessment of life satisfaction, the orientation of social expectations. The choice of these indicators is due to the appropriateness of their application in the study of the relationships between consumer behavior, inequality and well-being of older people. The approbation of the complex criterion in the model of the matrix of consumer behavior styles is implemented on the data of sociological surveys of people aged 55+ living in cities and rural areas of the Tomsk region, conducted in 2015 and 2019 within the framework of the scientific project “Assessment and improvement of social, economic and emotional well-being of the elderly” of the International Scientific Educational Laboratory for the Improvement of Wellbeing Technologies of Older Adults at Tomsk Polytechnic University. The analysis of sociological data made it possible to identify the relationship between material well-being and the subjective position of an elderly person, which fixes a certain consumer style. The study also revealed the influence of the factor of the use of electronic technologies on the consumer behavior of the elderly.
59-71 132
Abstract
The authors consider the conditions under which the geological study of the identified structures can lead to a commercial industrially significant discovery of the Deposit. To achieve this goal, a non-standard approach was chosen - determining the minimum cost-effective parameters of object development using threshold analysis algorithms. It allows you to determine, on the one hand, the limitations of cost - effective development of objects that exist at the moment, to identify critical parameters that determine the unprofitability of the project, on the other - to create conditions in which development can become cost-effective in the future, thereby forming a vector in which decisions should be made at all stages of the project implementation. Application of the approach is demonstrated on a group of promising local objects in Paleozoic deposits located in the South of Western Siberia. The conditions for effective development of the objects under consideration are obtained, the probability of their achievement is estimated, and a list of recommendations on the order of search drilling is formulated. The complexity, convenience and applicability of this approach to the problem of searching for conditions for the formation of new resource and economic assets are proved.
72-85 109
Abstract
The article is devoted to the problems of the development of instrumental approaches to modeling of the municipal solid waste management system. A main purpose of the study is to develop a concept for joint accounting of the economic and environmental efficiency of the functioning of the municipal solid waste management system in the construction of economic and mathematical models. The generalization of world experience allows us to identify the insufficient elaboration of these issues. It allows also to determine the degree of limitations of existing approaches for the purposes of applied modeling of this area, as well as to identify their main strengths and weaknesses. In order to overcome these problems, a conceptual model of the functioning of the regional municipal solid waste management system has been developed, based on the synthesis of intersectoral and agency approaches. It is shown that it is promising for the further development of existing approaches to economic and mathematical modeling of this area in the direction of a more complete and simultaneous consideration of these aspects of efficiency, behavioral features and the main interrelationships of economic entities, as well as measures of state environmental policy.
86-103 275
Abstract
The master’s degree program is the third level of higher professional education and is available after obtaining a bachelor’s or specialist’s degree. It provides an opportunity to gain deeper knowledge in a specific field and can be useful for a successful career in many areas of activity, as well as opens the way to scientific and teaching activities. Awareness of the importance of obtaining a master’s degree by a University graduate largely depends on their expectations about possible career growth and the level of future income. Therefore, the question of a quantitative a priori assessment of the impact of the master’s degree on the level of wages, taking into account the available alternatives, seems relevant. The article considers the impact of master’s education on the salary level for the period from 2014 to 2018, and calculates a quantitative a priori assessment of this impact, taking into account certain factors such as the federal district of residence, age, etc. The study was based on data from the Russian monitoring of the economic situation and health of the population of the HSE - RLMS for the period 2014-2018. It showed that successful completion of a master’s degree directly affects the level of wages. Also, the master’s program has a small but positive time effect and has the greatest impact on wages in technologically and socially developed Federal districts. The main contribution of the work to the knowledge of the subject of research was a comprehensive study of the position of master’s education, as well as determining its impact on wages, with the calculation of a quantitative a priori assessment in various simulated situations. Keywords
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
104-118 1936
Abstract
The article considers the issues of state regulation of investment activity in the digital environment using the example of the USA, the European Union, Japan and the BRICS countries. In the era of computers and high technologies, the digital economy affects all spheres of life: healthcare, education, Internet banking, and government. The digital economy is developing in all highly developed countries, including Russia. Currently, the concepts of the formation and development of the digital economy in modern developed countries are defined differently. The main problems in regulating relations related to the development of the digital economy are identified both at the level of legislative acts and at the level of by-laws; in strategic documents at the national level. The purpose of this article is to study the foreign experience of state regulation of investments in the digital economy. The theoretical and methodological basis of this article was the research of Russian and foreign scientists studying the content and forms of state regulation of the investment process, expert and analytical materials of public servants, materials of scientific conferences and seminars. A database for substantiating conceptual provisions: information materials of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and its regional bodies, a number of research institutes, analytical materials of Russian and foreign financial institutions, regulatory legal acts and official materials of federal and regional authorities. In the process of the study, methods of logical, statistical and system analysis, methods of modeling and expert evaluation were used.
MANAGEMENT
119-135 228
Abstract
The rapid development of the digital economy determines the need to increase the scientific potential and innovation activity of domestic enterprises. The purpose of the article is to study topical issues of scientific and innovative and institutional development of production in Russia, as well as to substantiate the feasibility of forming scientific and industrial complexes in the industrial sector of the country. The object of research is research and production associations, large industrial enterprises and complexes, elements of innovative infrastructure operating in the digital environment. The scientific novelty of the work consists in determining the content of the scientific and industrial complex as a set of integrated enterprises, scientific organizations, design institutes and service assets that function as a single structure and form a common production and engineering cycle in order to produce competitive high-tech products. The list of advantages of the scientific and practical complex in relation to independent (autonomous) enterprises and other forms of market cooperation of economic entities is defined and justified. The applied significance of the work is to identify and analyze systemic problems that hinder the implementation of the economic, scientific and innovative potential of Russian industry. These include the crisis of the state infrastructure approach to innovative industrial development; the weakening of economic ties between industrial complexes and scientific organizations; reduced investment in enterprise modernization; and the dynamic change in business conditions under the influence of the digital economy. As the results of the research, the article presents a model subject-functional structure and an algorithm for the formation of the scientific and industrial complex, which ensure the integration of the potential of industrial, scientific and infrastructure organizations. The research materials can be used by the management of industrial enterprises and research organizations as a theoretical and methodological, information and analytical base for preparing and implementing reforms in the real sector of the domestic economy.
136-149 138
Abstract
The article revels the challenges of using project-based management for professional orientation of students at the senior stage of the secondary school in Republic of Kazakhstan. The competency-based approach as a fundamental paradigm has been identified for successful implementation of the project-based management at the senior (high) stage of the secondary school, which, in turn, is a determining factor in the situation on the labor market. The stages of implementation of project-based management for professional orientation of high school students have been worked out. The current situation of project-based management implementation has been investigated based on sample.
METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
150-173 184
Abstract
The article is devoted to a topical issue of the economy and society of the 21st century - the search and scientific substantiation of methodological techniques and tools for the formation and effective use of human capital in the regions of Russia. To achieve this goal, traditional general scientific methods were used: analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, survey. It is substantiated that vocational guidance work with the young generation of Russians contributes not only to their professional and personal self-determination, but also to the successful implementation of the accumulated human capital. The development of the phenomenon of vocational guidance is considered in a historical retrospective in the context of expanding the boundaries of human freedom in the socio-economic system. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of the applied aspect of vocational guidance work in high school - a certified program of additional professional education “Perspective: Your Path to Success”. The article presents a career guidance project based on the program “Perspective: Your Path to Success” and implemented in Vologda on the basis of the Vologda Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The uniqueness of the program lies in keeping a diary “Turn on 35!” The concept of which includes three sequential and complementary blocks: motivation, self-knowledge, resource map. The first block of the diary is devoted to the motivational component in choosing a professional path. The second block is aimed at self-knowledge and compilation by students of an individual “selfie screen” reflecting the inner world. The third block is a resource map of the region, which consists of up-to-date information about enterprises and organizations of the Vologda region, about the prospects for employment and career growth in the region. It is this aspect that determines the scientific novelty of the work. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that a similar project can be applied in other regions interested in highly effective development and preservation of human resources.
SCIENTIFIC LIFE
ISSN 2542-0429 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)