MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
Momentum-effect has many interpretations in the practice of investing and in understanding of anomalies in asset prices. We consider a Cross-Sectional momentum effects and the corresponding two medium-term (3 months or more) trading strategies that are different from the trend following rules for individual assets. We tested four hypothesis deals with cross-sectional momentum effect on the Russian stock market and the possibility of building a self-financing (long-short) trading strategy at three time horizon (stock market growth from 2004 until mid- 2008, financial crisis and post-crisis periods). It is shown that for the Russian market cross-sectional momentum strategy with partly rebalanced portfolio maximizing portfolio return (134 stocks listed from 2004 to 2014 in the few Russian stock exchanges) should be based on the three-month formation period and three-month holding period periods (3/1/3). We have identified elements of profit-maximizing momentum strategy: three time windows and determinants of assets. Monthly average return of arbitrage strategy is estimated at 1.5 % for 134 common shares. Implementation of the strategy for the post-crisis period does not allow to maximize profit. For 6 month and more investment windows it gets the advantage of reverse strategy (opening long positions in stocks with low investment results and short position for assets with high relative returns). Fundamental parameters of the issuer (size of companies like market capitalization and two measures of liquidity (trading activity and transaction costs like bid-ask spread)) are significant to maximize portfolio performance (we prove the growth of monthly average return ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 %). We find that size and liquidity control momentum strategy can earn positive profits in Russian stock market, larger than naïve momentum.
The problem of credit risk is relevant for the bank. The purpose of scientific research – to develop a technique of adaptation and application of the model for the evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs. The proposed method of evaluation credit risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs has many advantages. Automation of calculations, based on plausible assumptions, will significantly reduce the time to process the customer's request. The article contains analysis of the KMV model based on the up-to-date results of the theory. The author investigates the possibility of modification, generalization of the model and practical implementation of the risk estimate of default entrepreneur KMV model using software package Visual Basic for Application on the example Management reporting of the entrepreneur. Showing the features of its application in the light of the modern achievements in the theory and practice of financial analysis. In this article suggested the finished result of evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs, for risk assessment offered more precise recommendations for the practical use of KMV as a basic tool.
Continuing stagnation in the Russian economy makes a compelling case for structural reforms and transition to new technologies in non-financial sector. Given the backdrop of investor choice to wait out the situation and pause their investments, stagnation threatens to remain for longer. The biggest concerns are related to the slowdown in the range of high-tech non-resource manufacturing industries. These industries should become the cornerstone to foster the development of scientific, technical, and innovative potential of the country, overcoming the technical deficit, and implementation of modern technologies of the sixth technological generation. The article assesses the place and role of manufacturing industries in Russia’s economy and presents an analysis of dynamic shifts in their structure during the business cycle. The article demonstrates the results of empirical study of monitoring of innovative receptiveness of manufacturing industries. We discuss the directions of expanded cooperation between business and state. We also outline opportunities for correcting policies and tools directed at activating innovative functioning of the manufacturing sector in the view of the growth of geopolitical tensions, forms and methods of effective institutional management of the modernization of business units. It appears that the issues of investment maneuver to single out some types of economic activities, which manufacture products and services with high added value and increasing competitiveness of the Russian economy, call for the change in the model of economic development.
Наша гипотеза состоит в том, что главной причиной значительного отставания России от передовых стран по энергоэффективности является слабость стимулов к энергосбережению, обусловленная недостатками институционального механизма. Чтобы это продемонстрировать, мы строим теоретическую модель энергопотребляющего сектора экономики и показываем, что чем выше транзакционные издержки, вызванные недостатками рынка и регулирования, тем ниже вероятность осуществления энергосберегающих мероприятий в ответ на рост цены энергии. Включение для 77 стран мира на период середины предыдущего десятилетия в регрессии для коэффициентов энергоемкости институциональных переменных позволило нам построить коэффициенты эластичности спроса на энергию по цене, дифференцированные по различным экономикам. Такие показатели (по абсолютной величине) для стран СНГ оказались почти вчетверо ниже, чем в странах ОЭСР.
Autonomy of the industrial forecasts often exacerbated by the lack of direct connection with the economic forecasts on the macro level. On the other hand it is desirable to simulate the industrial strategy in a fairly high degree of isolation, so that it does not depend at every moment on description of other activities or levels of hierarchy. To study the effects of national economic relations on the development of industrial complex we propose to use a spatial model of the national economy, which describes modalities of the researched industries in more detail. Quantitative parameters, obtained using basic Inter-regional Cross-sectoral Optimization Model (OMMM) against the external development of the industrial complex, are used to form an aggregated model with a detailed representation with unsignificant loss of information. Thus, the above described model is intended to harmonize national economic decisions with forecasts obtained from industry models in real terms. The conversion procedure is based on the properties of the model of «mutual» problems and information from basic OMMM. The final result is a production-transport cost model within a «traditional» industrial structure.
In the midst of the global financial crisis (2007–2009) World Economic Forum has recognized Russia's economy as being on the brink of innovative stage of development. Only in 2010, the negative impact of the crisis has manifested itself with a sharp drop in competitiveness of economy, especially in the areas where the innovative potential of the country was being formed. The domain of science and education form the infrastructure basis of innovative entrepreneurship, and in Russia, until recently, levels of these, though falling, were still recognized as high. Therefore, it is very important today to raise and strengthen the competitiveness of science and professional education, i.e. the sphere wherein the human capital necessary for innovation and for stimulation of innovative entrepreneurship, is formed. In 2010–2012, the Government of the Russian Federation implemented a program to stimulate innovative entrepreneurship based on accelerated infrastructure development in the spheres of science and education, and in 2013 began to reform science. Within the scope of this study are the 2007–2013 changes in the infrastructure of innovative entrepreneurship in scientific and educational spheres and their evaluation. The purpose of the study is to determine the most urgent and pressing issues requiring priority innovative solutions to increase the country's innovation potential. For evaluation, the methodology and tools used by the Global Competitiveness Index IEF are used. The choice of this methodology is justified not only by the close relationship between the respective competitiveness of the economies and their potentials for innovation, but also due to public confidence in this rating as a useful tool for analysts to identify the weaknesses in national competitiveness and to identify priority areas for action to improve it and to accelerate economic growth. The conclusions of the evaluation conducted in this study relate to inertia in scientific and educational sectors; e.g. results of the efforts appear with a time lag; the incipient growth of the last year started from a very low baseline and requires support from the regions, universities, research and business organizations.
The statement «the main asset of any company is its staff» has already become axiomatic. People is the only competitive advantage the companies have now, although for many years the possession of technologies is considered as a competitive advantage. The article covers essential questions connecting with staff management to executive strategy of value based management. The problems connected with the estimation of human capital as long-term factor of the company’s value growth are described. However one can implement in practice only in condition that it may be estimated or measured. The author puts forth his conception of the technique of human capital estimation. Approaches and methods of the estimation of human capital of company are systematized and described. The estimation of human capital elements allows to find out the potential of this intangible asset in order to increase the value of company.
The influence of a group of factors – internal and external for the primary nickel market and related to the real and fictitious economy – on the price of the metal is scrutinized in the article. The dependence between the prices dynamics of the basic non-ferrous metals was analyzed. Fluctuations in the balance of nickel consumption and production, changes in production costs of metals started to play a less important role; while other factors, which most of all characterize the speculative component of the price, came to the fore. From the mid 2000’s it is global macroeconomic factors, which characterize the fictitious economy and changes connected with bidding on the London Metal Exchange, that impact the prices of non-ferrous metals. Different modeling approaches for analyzing dynamics of the primary indexes are examined in the article. The results of the modeling of the volumes of the world production and the nickel market (consumption and import) in the USA are presented.
On the basis of the constructed evolutionary model in relation to branch of production of steam coals its structural transformation at taking note of various environmental characteristics is considered: endogenous competition, antimonopoly and anti-recessionary regulation. As an indicator of evolution of system it is offered to consider its structural change (Herfindahl-Hirschman index). The executed modeling showed that the speed of evolution of system, more intensive processes of concentration is in direct dependence on a price factor and in inverse relationship from rigidity of criteria of a dominant position. Frequency of transformation of system grows at increase in sensitivity of market price to a ratio of supply and demand and at cancellation of restrictions on the maximum volume, and decreases at liberalization of anti-recessionary regulation. It is shown that actions of antimonopoly and anti-recessionary regulation can make sense in the short-term period, but in long-term prospect they lead to braking of development of system.
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
In the conditions of high degree of inter-regional inequality in modern Russia mitigation of social differentiation remains a major challenge of public policy. That’s why measurement of both the extent and the dynamics of inequality in levels of living, the question of the evolution of social inequality continue to be relevant in terms of setting goals, directions and choice of activities and the extent of social policy. In this study, firstly, we analyzed the dynamics of disparities of a wide range of regional indicators of levels of living in Russia during the period of 2000 – 2012; secondly, based on the analysis of inequality of the built integral indicator of the levels of living we draw conclusions about the overall dynamics of inter-regional differentiation of levels of living; in the third, we concluded about the main factors that determine the level of life in Russian regions. The study showed that all considered indicators demonstrated a positive trend and interregional differentiation of the majority of them declined in the first decade of the twenty-first century. The most important factors determining the level of living in the region are the level of economic development, the agglomeration effect and institutional factors. Analysis of general regional indicators of level of living also showed a decrease of inequality, mainly due to the state social policy. The study expands knowledge of regional disparities in living standards in Russia in the period 2000–2012.
The article examines patterns of structural change in the transformation to ensure the sustainability of economic growth as the base address socio-economic problems in the national economy. Author, classified and disclosed the concept of structural policies outlined in the article. And theoretically analyzed the problem of macroeconomic policies and institutional reforms in the current stage of market reforms in the Republic of Tajikistan. The main factors to reform laws and achieve economic independence of the state, through the creation of a favorable investment climate.
MANAGEMENT
Article is devoted to questions of the analysis of transfer of business processes on outsourcing when carrying out restructuring of the enterprises. For carrying out the analysis classification the restructuring of projects from the point of view of their life cycle was used. On the basis of the group of the reasons of transition made by the author on outsourcing the analysis of advantages and shortcomings of transition to outsourcing was carried out. Also criteria of decision-making on transition to enterprise outsourcing in the course of restructuring were formulated. The conclusion about efficiency of use of outsourcing in processes of restructuring of the industrial enterprises at all stages of their life cycle became result of article. As an example of possible efficiency of transfer of business processes on outsourcing one of the enterprises of heavy mechanical engineering of Siberian federal district, being in a bankruptcy stage was considered.
The paper considers a scientific program and paradigm of K. Marx’s economic theory; the basic difference between his scientific program and those presented by the leading economists of the first half of the XIX century; and diverse attitudes of the soviet scientific school of economics towards the concept of scientific revolutions. We show that the paradigm of Marxist economic theory significantly differs from the ‘hard core’ of classical economics and Marxism has its own and original paradigm which includes certain elements of classical economics and historical school and the part of hypotheses of both moves from the ‘hard core’ to ‘auxiliary hypotheses’ and vice versa at that. We also analyze how the 'research program' and certain basic elements of Marx’s economic theory impacts on the concepts of scientists who worked within the framework of alternative schools. We can conclude that Marxism greatly influenced the choice of the subject and statement of problems made by researchers of neoclassical economics, Austrian school, and institutionalism.
The article presents an example of application of the concept of system-innovation bibliometriс analysis and mapping of economic literature (SIBAMEL) (created by Department of Economics of the National Research University – Novosibirsk State University and the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences). The application embraces the sphere of innovation. We use the EconLit as information base of the research. Four types of records were extracted and analyzed: 1) the records with the word «innovation» in the title of publication; 2) the records with the codes three fields of JEL classification O31, O32, and Q55. The mentioned fields include the word «innovation» in the names of the fields. We marked the publications with these features as «innovative». At the first stage of analysis, we have chosen the fields of JEL classification that did not include the «innovative» publication at the end of 2005 year. Then we considered publications in EconLit in 2006–2013 and found the new directions of economic research according to our definition of «innovative» publications for all intersections of the classifications fields. We present the ranking of new research directions and a few examples of new publications, the results of consideration of situations when a few new works appeared before the year 2005 and then there were the booms in publications at the same directions.
METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
The level of education is an important indicator of social status. Changes in the educational level are one of the main indicators of social mobility. Comparing the educational levels of the «fathers» and «children» can draw conclusions about intergenerational social mobility. Among the many channels of social mobility is especially popular a policy nowadays, which attracts more and more young people. It raises the question of whether the policy provides a higher level of social mobility of young people and what factors contribute to it? Thus, the article analyzes the trends and factors of intergenerational social (educational) mobility of young political figures in modern Russian society. The results of the online-survey participants of Russian Youth Forum «Seliger-2013» (N = 447) were used as an empirical basis; the survey was conducted in September and August 2013 and it revealed that a significant impact on the level of social mobility of young workers had conditions of socialization and human capital of mothers respondents. Also the educational mobility among young political figures higher than average among Russians of the same age.
At the base of sociological case study done at four Siberian enterprises of military-industrial complex was made a test to construct a typology of workers that vary for different types and trajectories or strategies of subjectivity and can be viewed as kind of continuum – trans-subjectivity – which is characterized by the absence of the subject or by its full manifestation. The relations between phenomenon of subjectivity of the workers and type of social structures of enterprises (organizations) is the problem viewed in this article. The author supposes that in the modern tree-vertical-hierarchical structures dominates hypo-subjectivity of workers – phenomenon of the «death of the subject». An alternative is the rhizome structure which allows to «resurrect» the subject – productive worker and to reduce its firmly fixation in the system and to make his social action non-linear. At the base of sociological case study done at four Siberian enterprises of military-industrial complex was made a test to construct a typology of workers that vary for different types of subjectivity. Checking the evolution of interpretations of the concepts of «subjectivity» and «subject», the author concludes that a full-fledged social agent, the actor, the engine of historical and social processes is premature to write off, and that he may still have the main role in the context of transforming dynamics of contemporary social processes. Empirical referent of study and such an active acting, self-referential social agent capable of withstanding discourses of the power, as well as the pressure of capital and the prevailing social ethic machines are engineering and technical personnel of modern Russian industrial enterprises. Relevance in the study of the social stratum of workers due to the author's opinion, the need to enhance the most creative group of workers of the domestic industry, as the main social capital of productive economy, rebuilding and strengthening of which is seen today is extremely important.
METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
At the base of sociological case study done at four Siberian enterprises of military-industrial complex was made a test to construct a typology of workers that vary for different types and trajectories or strategies of subjectivity and can be viewed as kind of continuum – trans-subjectivity – which is characterized by the absence of the subject or by its full manifestation. The relations between phenomenon of subjectivity of the workers and type of social structures of enterprises (organizations) is the problem viewed in this article. The author supposes that in the modern tree-vertical-hierarchical structures dominates hypo-subjectivity of workers – phenomenon of the «death of the subject». An alternative is the rhizome structure which allows to «resurrect» the subject – productive worker and to reduce its firmly fixation in the system and to make his social action non-linear. At the base of sociological case study done at four Siberian enterprises of military-industrial complex was made a test to construct a typology of workers that vary for different types of subjectivity. Checking the evolution of interpretations of the concepts of «subjectivity» and «subject», the author concludes that a full-fledged social agent, the actor, the engine of historical and social processes is premature to write off, and that he may still have the main role in the context of transforming dynamics of contemporary social processes. Empirical referent of study and such an active acting, self-referential social agent capable of withstanding discourses of the power, as well as the pressure of capital and the prevailing social ethic machines are engineering and technical personnel of modern Russian industrial enterprises. Relevance in the study of the social stratum of workers due to the author's opinion, the need to enhance the most creative group of workers of the domestic industry, as the main social capital of productive economy, rebuilding and strengthening of which is seen today is extremely important.
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)