Vol 18, No 3 (2018)
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
5-17 200
Abstract
The article compares the current situation in the central banks of the BRICS countries and changes in their main characteristics as well as the results of their monetary policy after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Significance of main modern monetary policy instruments is evaluated by means of a modified model based on the Taylor rule. The influence of developed countries’ central banks on the monetary policy of the BRICS countries and the BRICS countries’ central banks on each other is studied using a vector error correction model. According to our analysis, not all the countries in the selection influence each other. The monetary policy of the BRICS countries’ central banks correlates to that of developed countries’ central banks, but there is a lag in making decisions and the instruments used are different. The US Federal Reserve system has a more significant effect on Russia, India and South Africa, while the monetary instruments in China are very much under the influence of the Bank of Japan. All the processes considered result from globalization in the field of macroeconomic financial policy, which affects the national monetary policies in different ways.
18-28 144
Abstract
The modern stage of social and civilization development can be characterized with confidence as innovative and transforming all spheres of social life without exception. At this stage, Russia sets ambitious but fully realized (under certain conditions) goals related to the transition of the country to the innovative way. However, such a transition requires, literally, a forced technological “breakthrough”, similar to the engineering revolution of the 1930s (industrialization) which formed a new type of personality - the engineer of the society of general asceticism. The innovation society of the XXI century also generates an innovative personality as a special social type, the characteristics of which have not yet been studied within the framework of sociological science. The article is devoted to the analysis of the intermediate results of the innovative development strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020 on the basis of the study of Russia’s position in the world rankings. The article also presents an analysis of the indicators of the Strategy in the context of world rankings, which can not be considered fully sufficient. The author’s analysis is not limited to the study of the indicators specified in the Strategy, but also refers to other world rankings that reflect the innovative development of the country.
29-41 94
Abstract
The article gives a brief description of the existing system of environmental standards in Russia with the identification of its weaknesses, which include, first of all, excessive rigidity of existing environmental standards based on sanitary and hygienic indicators; too many controlled substances; possibility of incorrect provision of information on pollution by polluting enterprises; the lack of differentiation of the system of environmental standards across the territory, taking into account the peculiarities of each specific region; ignoring the cumulative impact of all enterprises on the environment and their ecological compatibility in a given territory, etc. The essence of the principle of the best available technologies is revealed on the example of the experience of the countries of the European Union. The possibilities and limitations for introducing the principle of the best available technologies in the conditions of Russia are shown (it is supposed to be introduced from 01.01.2019). The arguments are given and the conclusion is made that the country's economy is not ready for the transition to a new system of rationing.
42-54 222
Abstract
In the work based on the macroeconomic extended production function of Cobb-Douglas, factors of differentiation of production volumes of the gross regional product per one employed in Russia in the period 2003-2014 are considered. With the help of spatial regression analysis, it is shown that the main factor of differentiation of production volumes in the regions of Russia is the average level of education of the regions occupied by the economy, in second place - the labor funds in the economy of the regions. It is also shown that the ratio of the marginal productivity of human capital to its average productivity is greater than one in all years of the period under review and in all regions of Russia, which shows the high efficiency of investments in human capital in Russia and the expediency of their growth. It is proposed to increase the state's spending on general and special education, especially in provincial regions, since the calculations show the positive effect of scale on investment in human capital.
MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
55-65 169
Abstract
The relevance of the study conducted in this article is due to the fact that in the context of globalization of segmentation of markets, toughening of competition, the requirements to the survival of enterprises increase. In the coming years, leadership will belong to enterprises with the predominant development of digital technologies. The purpose of the study is to formulate the features of human capital management in enterprises on the basis of identifying factors that affect the level of digitalization in the transition to digital technology. The main hypothesis was that in the activities of enterprises to increase the level of digitalization, primarily, internal factors related to resource constraints and the management of human capital are hampered. This hypothesis was partially confirmed. The subject is the study of the processes of development and transformation of industrial enterprises in the digital economy. The practical significance of the research results is that a correct interpretation of the factors influencing the level of digitalization of enterprises in the digital economy will allow choosing the right instruments of influence on increasing the efficiency of enterprises and the economy as a whole. This study is the starting point of a large-scale work on the definition of new vectors in the strategic management of industrial enterprises in the conditions of the development of the digital economy.
66-80 107
Abstract
In the conditions of modern scientific and technological development, the main investment decisions are made at the microeconomic project level, and the mutual influence of the projects on each other, including within the same firm, is significantly increased. There is a need to evaluate a set of investment projects that generate synergistic effects. This article proposes methods for such an assessment, including the creation of a financial model of the firm based on three interrelated forms of financial reporting with a detailed presentation of the most important financial indicators of the firm, identifying the main combinations of projects, building options for the company model for each combination, taking into account all the relationships and synergies, comparison them among themselves and with a firm model without projects, an evaluation of the efficiency of each combination of projects based on discounted free cash flows, the determination of the expected synergistic effects for each set of projects, the selection of the most significant ones and their integration into the model. As a result, a combination of projects is considered as the most effective, which provides the maximum increase in the value of the firm. Suggested methods and models are approved on the example of a firm considering the implementation of two interrelated investment projects. It is shown how individual synergetic effects generated by projects directly or indirectly affect most of the parameters of the simulation model. The proposed methodology allows solving the problem of assessment for synergetic effects and used as a useful decision-making tool for firms implementing a set of interrelated investment projects, especially in the case of significant impact of projects on the activities of the company itself.
81-90 91
Abstract
Since the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation began monitoring the university effectiveness, such a radical approach to cleaning up the higher education system from "useless educational institutions" has become a permanent subject of criticism in the scientific community. The main argument is that most of the monitoring indicators do not reflect the effectiveness of the institution in terms of the ratio of the output to the cost. Nevertheless, these indicators characterize different aspects of the activities of universities. And the results of monitoring allow to obtain statistical estimates of the degree of influence on these indicators of the specialization of the university (the structure of the student contingent in the areas of training). However, due to the specifics of the compositional data as covariates it is not possible to estimate the parameters of the regression model using the standard least squares technique. In addition, the original data are heterogeneous and contain outliers. To solve these problems, a number of robust principal component regressions are estimated. The estimation results are analyzed in terms of consistency. It is revealed that an increase in the share of mathematical, natural-science, information and engineering specialties in the structure of student training on average leads to an increase in the indicators of scientific activity, while for the economy and tourism, the opposite trend is characteristic. The larger share of the economy and tourism in the structure of specialties corresponds, on the average, to the smaller average score of the Unified State Examination and higher values of the indicator of financial and economic activity. Thus, the availability of these specialties in the structure of training is justified from the point of view of the financial status of universities.
INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
91-103 109
Abstract
The conceptual and content aspects of cluster policy monitoring are considered. The key difficulties and peculiarities are marked out, which are associated with the need to take into account the multiple nature of the objects and subjects of cluster policy monitoring, the typological differences between clusters, the clusters support in the framework of various governmental programs, and the complexity of clusters and cluster policy as the objects of regulation. It is shown that there is no universal approach or idea about the organization of the monitoring of cluster policy, and the criteria used for monitoring should take into account political goals, be interconnected at the levels of subjects and objects of monitoring, and be measured according to the different time horizons. The systematization of aggregated groups of indicators most often used for monitoring cluster policy was made in the context of objects of monitoring.
MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS
104-116 117
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to test in practical predictive calculations the dynamic input-output model (DIOM) with fuzzy parameters constructed by the authors for the economy of the Republic of Buryatia (RB) with fuzzy parameters and a study of the reliability of the forecast indicators obtained with its use and stability of the dynamics of the main indicators of the region's economy in relation to the variation of investment in fixed assets and net export. The article also describes the concepts of fuzzy set, the coincidence of fuzzy sets, the reliability factor of the coincidence of two fuzzy indicators and the coefficient of stability of economic indicators, which are used in forecasting the development of the Buryatia economy. The article emphasizes the application of the fuzzy-sets approach to forecasting the regional economy. As a result of the forecast calculations, the reliability of the forecast of the regional gross output in relation to the variation in investments in fixed assets and the net export in the economy of the Republic of Belarus in the period 2018-2021 is shown to be quite high. When moving to higher growth rates of investment in an optimistic variant, the reliability of the regional gross output forecast relative to the investment variation is reduced. At the same time, the reliability of the forecast for the variation in the net export increases. Forecast calculations showed very low stability of the dynamics of the gross output of the economy of the Republic of Buryatia in relation to changes in investments in fixed assets. This indicates the possibility of a sharp acceleration of economic growth in the Republic of Butyatia due to a significant increase in investment.
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
117-125 632
Abstract
In the modern world the vast majority of the countries are developing. For catch up development of development, especially for increasing GDP per capita, a developing country should apply certain development models that will ensure accelerated economic growth. Such models, successfully implemented by some developing countries, have a number of distinctive features, which are studied in this article. The article analyzes three catch up development models: Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese. For each of these models, its features are specified, then they are compared for all of these models. In the study the time factor, as well as the development of the world economy, especially in the context of the information society, the importance of technical and marketing innovations, international relations are taking into account. The result of the study is the list of distinctive features of effective catch up development models. These features should be common for all catch up development models for latecomers. The list of the distinctive features includes several points. The model of catch up development significantly depends on the time of their jump, it must take into account the current state of world markets and the modern types of competition. The import of technologies, equipment and qualified personnel will not provide a technological shift, it is necessary for the company from the developing country to become a significant player in the world market in a given industry. Moreover, its business should be highly profitable. Latecomers need to focus on a few key industries which development is rather clear for inclusion in the process of innovation creating.
126-139 148
Abstract
The paper studies the aspects of measuring of the regional economic diversification. Diversification is one of the strategic priorities for the economies of the Russian regions, while the existing approaches to measuring and interpreting the values are diverse and rely on various, sometimes contradictory, theoretical assumptions. The review of the basic diversification indicators is made, some limitations of their application are shown. The analysis of empirical studies on the assessment of economic diversification of Russian regions is given. The analysis of a condition and dynamics of economic diversification in regions of the Siberian federal district is made. It is assumed that the region specifity and its strategic goals largely determine the choice of the approach to measuring the diversification of the regional economy. Some problems of measuring the diversification of the regional economy are listed.
140-150 102
Abstract
China and Russia were two neighboring major powers in the world as well as important nodes along the routes of the Belt and Road Initiative. In the context of a comprehensive strategic partnership, it was becoming more and more urgent and important to improve the results of Sino-Russian cooperation on cultural education, especially in the field of higher education, thus strengthening the cultural and technological strength of the two countries. Judging from the current development situation of education, a comprehensive and institutionalized mode of cooperation on education between China and Russia had been established and great achievements had been made. A reasonable analysis had been carried out on the basic status, necessity of cooperation, current problems and countermeasures in educational exchanges between China and Russia for reference to the strengthening of efforts on educational cooperation with Russia.
MANAGEMENT
151-169 184
Abstract
Innovative activity is the engine of scientific and technological progress. In turn, this determines the rate of onset of positive socio-economic changes. In connection with this conditional goal of the article, which can be expressed in the creation of a computer system to support management decision-making in the implementation of an industrial innovation company. For this, the current state of the Russian Federation was analyzed in comparison with the developed high-tech countries of the world in the context of science and industry. The current state of domestic small enterprises engaged in innovation activities was studied, the results of which revealed the need for technical tools for management decisions in the implementation of innovation activities. The authors have developed a mathematical algorithm for the selection of innovative ideas, modeled as an interactive computer application that allows the selection of the most effective and efficient innovations to be completed. Also presented is an algorithm for assessing financial capabilities in the implementation of innovative projects, which allows to assess the risk of bankruptcy in the implementation of innovative projects. In conclusion, recommendations on the implementation of a decision support system in innovation activities, their features of its functioning are proposed. The results obtained by the authors can be conducted by managers of industrial enterprises in the field of innovation and scientific and technological development.
170-181 135
Abstract
The paper presents a methodological approach to constructing an optimization model for planning the functioning of enterprises, firms, corporations in an industrial cluster. The formation of the cluster is based on the economic interest of enterprises. Researches are connected with development of mechanisms of management of development of the enterprises, corporations in the conditions of their integration interaction. There are a lot of problems of organizational-economic plan: rationale intracorporate transfer prices; determining synergistic, systemic effects and its distribution among the participants of the cluster; assessment of efficiency of realization of innovative-investment projects, financial innovation and other developments. The most effective organization of production for a group of industrial firms, which are combined into a cluster for the production of complex, high-value-added science-intensive products with solvent demand in the domestic market and abroad. Therefore, the development of a generalized mechanism for solving such problems without research simulating such processes on the basis of modeling is quite difficult. In work development of scientific and methodological approach to creation of effective system of intracorporate planning of functioning and development of the industrial cluster is carried out at coordination of integration interaction of its enterprises on the basis of use of model of optimization of strategic management of development of hi-tech business within the platform of management of the industrial cluster. The formation of clusters is an important element of the region's industrial policy. The results of practical calculations showed the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism for managing the development of industrial clusters.
ISSN 2542-0429 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)