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Vol 17, No 2 (2017)

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS

5–14 156
Abstract

The Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering (IEIE) of SB RAS and the Novosibirsk State University have accumulated many years of experience in the development and use of different types of point and spatial dynamic input-output models (DIOM) in the analysis and forecasting of the economy of Russia and its regions. In particular, the CAII system has been developed (Complex Analysis of Interindustrial Information), including DIOM taking into account the investment lag (DIOM-CAII), and model-software complex with spatial input-output models (further – MSC), including input-output inter-regional optimization model (IOIRM). Each type of the models has its advantages and limitations for use in the analysis and forecasting. The paper describes the differences and common features of data support of DIOM-CAII and MSC and summarizes the features of long-term forecasting of the Russian economy with the use of DIOM-CAII and IOIRM at the macroeconomic level. Authors provide a brief comparative analysis of the results of forecast calculations for the development of the Russian economy for the period 2014–2031 with allocation of the methodical features of the MSC and DIOM-CAII.

15–25 64
Abstract

The article demonstrates the possibilities of spatial analysis provided by the Agent-Based Multiregional Input – Output Model (ABMIOM) of the Russian economy. The basic hypothesis of the ABMIOM is that agents’ decisions at the microeconomic level lead to spatial changes at the macro level. Confirmation of this hypothesis requires experimental calculations with changes in various parameters that influence agents’ decisions (such as prices, taxes, tariffs, etc.). Analyzing the results of these calculations requires moving from microeconomic data to the macro level. The paper proposes a method for the structural analysis of the model simulation results using input-output tables. The method involves statistical aggregation of calculation results, construction of regional, national and interregional input-output tables and structural analysis of the obtained tables including calculation of regional Leontief multipliers. The method proposed is used to study the influence of the level of transport costs on the geographical structure of trade flows. The results of the experiments confirmed that with the increase of transportation costs economic agents prefer to interact with nearest agents, which leads to a decreased interregional commodity exchange and to economic «insulation» of the regions.

37–47 87
Abstract

The article is devoted to evaluation the influence of renewable energy consumption growth on regional product in the USA by state. Also we take into consideration the fact of electricity restructuring since the middle of 1990s for efficiency purposes. We attempted to assess influence of processes of the reform and changes in generating sector structure on the economic growth by the U.S. state. Methods of investigation used are cluster and panel data analyses. To make the analysis we used statistics for the period 2000 – 2014. Finally, we proved the significance of a share of renewables for the economic growth.

MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS

56-71 68
Abstract

This paper presents the review of issues and approaches to the analysis of escape dynamics in economic models with constant gain adaptive learning which is used to model and describe the behavior of various (macroeconomic as well as microeconomic) variables in diverse economic phenomena such as currency crises, inflation episodes, endogenous collusion in oligopoly, and cycles of economic activity. This review considers and contrasts two currently existing approaches to the analysis of escape dynamics: the discrete-time approach employed, for example, by Cho, Williams and Sargent (2002), and the continuous-time approach proposed by Kasa (2004) and extended recently by Kolyuzhnov, Bogomolova and Slobodyan (2014), stressing the advantages of the latter. The continuous-time approach is based on the application of the results of the continuous-time version of the large deviations theory to the diffusion approximation of the original discrete-time dynamics under learning. Escape dynamics is characterized by analytically deriving the most probable escape point and mean escape time. The paper provides an example of the continuous-time approach applied to the Phelps problem of a government controlling inflation while adaptively learning the approximate Phillips curve.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

72–85 59
Abstract

The goal of the study is the elaboration of the methodical approach to the justification and evaluation of principles and criteria to strengthen fiscal capacities of municipalities within the sub-federal fiscal policy. The study used a system approach, comparative and regression analysis. When solving the problems set out in the study economic and mathematical, statistical, balance methods were involved and specified in the methods of analysis of the structure and stability of the budget and assessment of the impact of fiscal policy on the economic development of the regions and municipalities. Complex calculations performed using data from the Novosibirsk oblast has revealed features of revenue formation of the local budgets and allowed to assess the impact of fiscal policy of the higher levels of government on incentives for economic development of the territories. Grouping of the municipal settlements of the Novosibirsk oblast according to the specific gravity of different categories of revenues was implemented. Furthermore, structuring of the municipalities of the Novosibirsk oblast in terms of their solvency was performed in both statics and dynamics. The results of the research can be used in studying the possibilities for improvement of the fiscal policy in the direction of alignment and incentives of municipalities to strengthen their own revenue base. The methodical approach to the study of the influence of the sub-federal fiscal policy on territorial development made it possible to characterize the inter-governmental fiscal relations at the subnational level in terms of overcoming the asymmetry in the budgetary provision of municipal settlements, as well as detect the presence of incentives for the municipalities of the Novosibirsk oblast to increase revenues collected in the region.

86–96 231
Abstract

The article presents the results of studies of the spatial development qualities and the human capital expanded reproduction of the Republic of Karelia and the Arctic regions of Russia’s European North. The aim of the article is the identification of characteristics, opportunities and threats of human capital reproduction in terms of region spatial development.

The application of the research results is to provide recommendations for improving reproduction of the human capital and development of the education and vocational guidance systems, human capital management in the region. The study of spatial development and reproduction of the human capital used methods of logical, statistical and comparative analysis and SWOT- analysis principles.

The results of the study allowed revealing the peculiarities of spatial development and human capital expanded reproduction of the Republic of Karelia in comparison with the Russian Arctic regions of the European North (Arkhangelsk Oblast, Murmansk Oblast, Komi Republic and Nenets Autonomous District). The Republic of Karelia has a special geographical position, and based on many socio-economic indicators is considered to be a «depressive» region. The expanded reproduction of human capital will bring the Republic of Karelia to the next level of development, taking into consideration external and internal factors as well as opportunities and threats.

The results obtained in the study will expand the existing system of knowledge about reproduction of the human capital in the framework of spatial development, and the review of the expanded reproduction of human capital on the regional level will allow the government authorities to develop objective measures of quality formation of the region's human resources. It is proved that the introduction of the vocational guidance system in the region could lead to minimization of the threats associated with depopulation and the gap between education system and the labor market, reduce the coefficient of tension in the labor market in the medium and long term and improve socioeconomic development of the region.

MANAGEMENT

97–109 86
Abstract

Nowadays innovative activity is usually considered as the most effective tool of increasing the competitiveness of organizations and their development. Therefore, the qualified employees which are willing to accompany the innovative process at all organizational levels are highly demanded. Most of them are expected to have a special expertise and skills that ensure their successful participation in innovative activities. The article is aimed at the analysis of the contemporary Russian educational standards to reveal a specific area of such expertise and skills which is innovative competences. It also presents the results of the sociological research that involved the teachers of secondary schools. The purpose of the research was to confirm the advisability of introducing the concept of innovative competences in educational standards and to define this concept.

110–120 222
Abstract

One of the key problems in the theory and practice of management since the mid-twentieth century is the problem of correlation between «management efficiency» and «leadership styles». Any manager wishing to improve the effectiveness of their work should seek to choose an effective leadership style. The article presents the results of the study and description of a business game that allows a practicing manager to make a choice or to design their own effective leadership style. In the study of leadership styles using the method of gaming simulation was implemented a work plan that includes the following steps: (1) classifying leadership styles; (2) development of the «Management styles» business game; (3) a series of game simulation experiments using the «Management styles» business game; (4) analysis of the results of the game simulation.

The classification was founded on the assertion that the style of leadership is the ability of a manager to influence individuals and groups of people to encourage them to work towards the goals of the company. The extent to which a manager delegates his authority, types of authority used by him, and his concern, above all, about human relations or about the execution of tasks – all reflect the style of leadership that characterizes the manager. In this section of the study nine management concepts were reviewed, with Kurt Lewin’s concept of leadership styles being outlined as a main one. The longevity of this classic typology is attributed to its simplicity and clarity. There are three major styles of leadership: (a) authoritarian style (the power of one person), (b) democratic style (the power of a group), (с) liberal style (the power of everyone).

Business game is conducted in a group of 20–30 experts, includes three stages (introduction, simulation, problem), aims to discuss leadership styles in an active form and use it as a basis to determine the conditions of their practical application. Players perform certain activities fulfilling their respective roles (autocrat, democrat, liberal). In the framework of the problem story players formulate expert judgments about the specifics and conditions of use of a particular style of leadership. The article presents the results of eight game experiments.

121–129 128
Abstract

The normative method for accounting of costs and calculating has been known for a long time and is widely used by foreign companies. While in the practice of Russian enterprises it is used quite rarely because of difficulties of its use. The article suggests ways to improve the normative method of accounting and control of costs: for the normalization, divide the indirect costs for guild, general factory and commercial expenses according to the elements of the cost estimate and places from the occurrence; for a detailed analysis of deviations, form a matrix whose columns show the division, and the rows cost element, and the value in the cells shows the amount of the deviation, which will allow the management to identify more objectively the perpetrators of the occurrence of adverse deviations and apply adequate penalties to them. It is proposed to create a single center for the development of norms and standards that will allow the organization of end-to-end management of a newly identified management entity, in which the specific cost norms for types of products and deviations for them in the production and sale of products. Such centers should be built into organizational structures of Russian industrial enterprises operating in the enterprise, which will allow enterprise managers to choose the option of a comprehensive use of the standard method of accounting and control of costs.

INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS

130–141 109
Abstract

Environmental policies have been considering citizens as passive actors of the change for many years, the new economics, and more precisely the notion of ecological citizenship, transcend this view by introducing citizens as actors of change and source of progress. In this article I try to put in perspective the literature on that topic with the rising of Community Supported Agriculture, to try to give weight to this new view. This new type of sustainable consumption might be considered as a tangible evidence of the theory of Dobson on ecological citizenship, if so, the scientific literature has to take more interest in it, so as to understand its implication in terms of public policies, which has yet not been done.

 
142–149 66
Abstract

The article describes in chronological order the accumulated «negative» entropy indices of the Russian people from 1900 to 1917, which led to the 1917 revolution. The revolution in Russia was caused by the negative change of the society’s internal energy and inadequate regulation actions of the tsarist autocracy. The government swiftly destroyed the patriarchal structure that was built for centuries and did not offer any better solutions, which led to the deterioration of the economic state of the nation. People, tired of war, did not accept slogan of the elite – «fight to the finish». Even the military elite conspired to overthrow the autocracy, while the part that backed the government – White movement – was unsuccessful both in the revolution and the civil war. The February Revolution of 1917 is not the result of the Bolsheviks’ victory, but the conspiracy of generals. Analytical calculations of the entropy indices as a «chaos» theory proves the incontestability of these events.

METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH

150–159 61
Abstract

In this article urban architecture, acting as a «natural physical borders of mankind», creates a certain discourse of social practices that construct and define reality, forming views and values. Moreover, that discourse can be deconstructed and problematized through representation of the urban architecture, which provides an opportunity to explore different ways of forming those social practices among citizens.

Thus, the main idea of this study is to examine the way in which social practices could be seen as a reflection of citizen’s actions, which, on the one hand, are set up by the urban construction as an objective structure and, on the other hand, modal behavior which are formed by the influence of a certain structure of thought and ideas.

To implement the objectives of the study, we use the discourse analysis as a method of analyzing the meanings through which an attempt of deconstruction of practices of urban life is made, the analysis of themes which are brought up to reveal the featured characteristics and values of urban architecture and ways of its coding.

SCIENTIFIC LIFE

160–167 60
Abstract

Faculty of Economics of Novosibirsk State University is 50 years old



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ISSN 2542-0429 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)