MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
Interregional integration is the most important property and form of manifestation of the unity of any economic space, in particular Russian. The study of this phenomenon is a significant area of research on the spatial development of the country. In the article the historical preconditions of the used approaches based on the theory of economic equilibrium have been studied and systematized. We have described and analyzed various forms of spatial economic equilibrium which are adequate to the modern level of development and mathematical representation of economy. The development of the concept of economic equilibrium in economic and mathematical models is presented. It is shown that the simplicity of the mathematical structure of the OMIOM allows, using all the concepts of economic equilibrium, to analyze the features of interregional economic interactions and assess the degree of economic interdependence of the regions of Russia. The economic space in the OMIOM is presented discretely, in the context of macro-regions, which are federal districts or their large fragments, uniting several subjects of the federation. The economy of each macroregion is presented in the context of the aggregated sectors of production of goods and services. For sectors with transportable products, interregional transport and economic ties are taken into account.
stract In this paper, we analyze the influence of various macroeconomic shocks caused by anti-Russian sanctions and a sharp decrease in the hydrocarbon prices in the middle of the last decade. We estimate the total loss in the economy and identify the shocks that provoked the decline in GDP and the increase in inflation from 2014 to 2018 using the DSGE approach and the obtained historical decompositions. According to the calculations, the inflation growth from 2014 to 2015 can be interpreted as the sum of the adverse effects of the change in household preferences, and the shock in oil prices. The observed GDP decline from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015 is explained by the synergistic effect of monetary policy shocks and the sharp drop in oil prices. According to our calculations, the total loss in the economy due to the described shocks in real terms is equal to 6.4 trillion rubles in 2011 prices.
The article assesses the relationship between income inequality and economic growth rates. We believe that such an assessment will help to define the prerequisites and conditions for the transition of economic growth rates into qualitative determinants. In the study we consider the net national income as an indicator of economic growth. The novelty of the study is in the use of the Bayesian approach in order to assess the interdependence of inequality in countries with different income levels and their economic growth rates. The assessment tool is the original Bayesian econometric model with variation of probable determinants. In the context of the study, the Bayesian approach reflects the interaction between the growth rates of net national income and inequality indicators for different income groups of countries in accordance with the World Bank classification. Empirical analysis of 164 countries data show a positive relation for low-income countries
The paper reviews techniques for measuring inflation expectations in Russia in the period from 2015 to 2020. In the tree methods under review, which comprise adaptive expectations, stock exchange indicators, and sociological surveys of the Bank of Russia, the authors found both common and distinguishing features. All the reviewed methods demonstrated that inflation expectations remain high in Russia despite the relatively stable rates of the last few years on the level of 4–5 %. When estimated by the adaptive method in 2015–2020, the inflation expectations stayed between 0.5 and 6.2 %. The adaptive expectations allow a simplified approach to estimation as they depend on the level of the previous period’s inflation and do not react to economic shocks in the short term. The method of stock exchange indicators estimated the inflation expectations dynamics from 2.5 up to 8.6 %. Thanks to the opportunity of daily monitoring inflation expectations, this method is better at analyzing factors that impact the sentiments of market agents. A comparative analysis of approaches to estimating inflation expectations revealed that expectations according to sociological surveys of the Bank of Russia happened to surpass the actual inflation. In the period 2015–2020 the level of inflation expectations varied between 8 and 17 %, which is much higher than Russia’s inflation level.l.
MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
The article deals with the development, functioning and regulation of the biopharmaceutical market in Russia and in the world. The statistics of investments in research and development in the private and public sectors are presented, it is concluded that the leading countries over the past ten years have gradually increased the growth rates of investments in R&D and built technological chains in various countries of the world. The data show that the structure and configuration of production, technology and sales chains in the world economy has changed over ten years, if the United States dominated earlier, then from the beginning of 2010 China has become an active player in this process. Using the example of the largest global biotechnology corporations, the importance of investments in research and development and their relationship with income levels is shown. According to the calculations, Russian pharmaceutical companies are seriously lagging behind their competitors in terms of key economic indicators.
Realistic evaluation of the investment attractiveness of the financed project is the basis for the successful functioning of a venture investor. At the same time, investors often have to act in conditions of a severe lack of information, especially when it comes to projects at an early stage of the life cycle. In these cases, they use multi-criteria methods for assessing investment attractiveness, often also called scoring methods. The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of innovative projects at the early stages of the life cycle, both based on an analysis of theoretical approaches in the field of venture economics, and based on an analysis of existing business practices.
We have proposed a method for assessing the investment attractiveness of a project based on dividing the criteria into three macro groups (market and entry strategy, team and product). At the same time, we used a concept that allows us to interpret the value of each of the assessed parameters (seven in each macro group) as a positive or negative signal given by the project to a potential investor.
An important difference between the presented methodology and others described in the professional literature is the combination of the use of theoretical models with an in-depth analysis of the criteria used in practice by various players in the venture capital market (funds, business angels, etc.), which together form the methodological basis of the work. This combination of the use of sources of information on the criteria for evaluating projects determines the scientific novelty of the study. The practical significance lies in the possibility of applying the proposed methodology both by venture investors and other actors of the venture capital ecosystem for making specific financial decisions.
The rare earth metals (REM) market is relatively young, because its rapid development began only in the middle of the 20th century. Since then, global demand has been constantly growing with the development of human society, scientific and technological progress. This leads to an increase in production volumes at existing fields, new projects for the development of rare earth mineral resources are emerging all over the world, strategic reserves of raw materials are being created in countries with a developed high-tech industry in the conditions of China’s monopoly on the market. Therefore, it is important to understand the balance and dynamics of supply and demand in the REM market in the long term. Will manufacturers be able to increase capacity to meet the rapidly growing demand? What volume of REM will be in demand in the future, what is the structure of this demand?
In this paper, demand forecasting in the global REM market up to 2050 is carried out on the basis of different scenarios. Estimates of the future level of demand were based on historical data in the context of consumption sectors. The forecasts results of three scenarios were compared: the exponential demand dynamics based on complete historical data, the continuation of the linear trend of the last decade using a regression model, and, finally, the inclusion in the regression model of forecast estimates of the growing demand for REM from the “green energy”, which are based on the report “The Role of Critical
Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions” of the International Energy Agency. Based on the results, an interval of forecast values of global demand for REM has been obtained, which can be satisfied by manufacturing companies from the supply side for the next 15–20 years (including domestic ones). However, there may be a shortage of some rare earth elements that are so in demand for the transition to “green energy”.
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
This article is devoted to the analysis of the Advanced development zone’s (ADZ) initiative in the context of the economic integration of the Russian Federation and South Korea. The author of the article, relying on an extensive source base, for the first time attempts to answer the question of what factors impede the successful implementation of projects by the two countries within the framework of the ADZ initiative.
The purpose of the study is to identify and characterize the main problems and prospects for cooperation between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation in ASEZs.
The study was carried out within the framework of an integrated approach using the SCAN Interfax media environment analysis system as one of the main forecasting tools. At the same time, the author draws on statistical data reflecting the state of export-import, trade turnover between the two countries over the past five years.
The analysis of the source made it possible to determine that despite the huge interest of South Korean business in the emerging markets of the Russian Federation, due to the complicated administrative procedures, the fundamental difference in the procedure for investing in high-tech and commercial production, lack of trust in the Russian system of economic planning, insufficient study of ways of doing business with South Korean companies with On the part of Russian Far Eastern specialists, the project could not be implemented as planned.
After the transition to program-targeted management methods in the Russian Federation, government programs have been actively developed at the federal and regional levels since 2013. Currently, it is of scientific interest what is the current state of these programs and how objectively they are evaluated using existing methods. Each region independently develops both government programs and methods of their evaluation. In this paper, using the example of the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of the government program on Development of the Economy and External Relations in the Kursk region, the weights of the indicators of the government program in the final evaluation of the effectiveness of the program are calculated. For comparison, the results of calculations of the weights of the indicators of the government program for the Republic of Buryatia on Economic Development and Innovative Economy are given. The results obtained can be used in the development of methods for evaluating government programs at the federal and regional levels. The paper also shows the problems of creating government programs at the level of the subjects of the Russian Federation, such as a weak connection with the strategic goals of the socio-economic development in regions, an excessively large number of target indicators and their insufficient validity, high and insufficient validity of the weight indicators of individual subprograms and activities, and insufficient funding of programs in comparison with the stated goals. To improve the effectiveness of government programs, it is necessary to develop standards for such programs, as well as information disclosure standards, which would allow an independent assessment of their effectiveness.
METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
The article attempts to consider emotional perception and normative orientation in reading with an emphasis on such emotions as shame. Reading is a significant part of the daily lives of researchers, and obviously there are a number of social norms around and about reading. In the course of the research, an assumption was made that the normative expectations relevant to the reader are able to create a ground for experiencing shame. Phenomenological analysis of interviews and focus group materials with researchers allowed us to identify reasons for shame about professional and leisure reading in relation to regulatory constraints, some explanations of this experience, as well as related features of motivation to read. The experience of shame in relation to reading comes from the perception of the researcher himself in the modification of reading and the corresponding normative expectations – so, the manifestation of shame was recorded in discussions about both work and leisure reading. It turned out that reading both scientific and leisure literature is perceived by researchers as their status duty, in this regard, its "inadequacy" becomes a key reason for experiencing shame.
The article analyzes a topical topic dedicated to changing the Internet practices of urban youth in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. The purpose of the study is to identify changes in Internet practices and their components among young people living in the city of Novosibirsk in a pandemic. The relevance, as well as scientific novelty, of research is caused by such a phenomenon as a pandemic, as a result of which there has been a change in the preferences of using the Internet among young people. Talking about the relevance, it should be mentioned that in a pandemic, the Internet provides the basis for the emergence of new and transformation of old Internet practices. In addition, the number of sociological studies studying the life of people before and after the pandemic and the role of the Internet in the changed living conditions under the influence of the pandemic has increased recently, since this is one of the relevant and important topics for discussion in the scientific community. Based on the data from the RCSPO polls for 2018 and 2020, the context of the situation under study was described. Through a series of face-to-face and online interviews (conducted in 2021) with young people aged 18– 24 living in Novosibirsk, the most subject to change were identified aspects of the implementation of Internet practices in the context of the pandemic. The study revealed a change in the structural elements of Internet practices after the pandemic and the emergence of new goals for using the Internet. The results of the study confirm the thesis about the emergence of a “new reality” and show how young people adapt to it.
The article presents the results of a study of commuting migrations of the Novosibirsk urban agglomeration residents. The research information base includes big data (on the trajectories of population movements using geoinformation systems, on the localization of activity in mobile networks, on car traffic) and data from a mass survey of Novosibirsk region residents, conducted in July 2019 (the method of collecting information is a structured telephone interview). The general trends in the development of urban agglomeration, the boundaries and structure of the agglomeration area in the first approximation have been determined, using aggregated and visualized big data. Mass survey data analysis allowed assess the commuting migration according to the following parameters: regularity, frequency, goals, duration of trips, type of transport used, and direction. The article describes the characteristics differentiation of commuting movements taking assessments of socio-economic conditions into account.
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