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Vol 23, No 4 (2023)
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MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS

5-26 333
Abstract

The paper describes the results of an econometric analysis of the influence of external and internal economic factors on the indicators of Russia’s foreign trade. In most cases, articles concerning the dynamics and volumes of imports and exports of Russia study the impact of prices for oil, gas and other mineral products on international markets. In this study, a number of estimated parameters affecting Russia’s foreign trade are expanded. Based on the theory of general economic equilibrium, in the analysis was included the parameters of the labor market and analyzed their mutual relationship with exports and imports in the Russian economy. The paper presents an assessment of the parameters of the constructed regression equations and provides a meaningful analysis of the numerical results obtained. When evaluating the numerical characteristics of regression equations for exports and imports, the parameters related to the labor market turned out to be statistically significant. It is shown that the increase in unemployment negatively affects the volume of imports and exports. An increase in the level of wages leads to an increase of imports and has a positive effect on the dynamics of the production of goods and services for export, provided that there is adequate demand on the world market. It also follows from the above mentioned results that an increase in the level of wages through an increase in aggregate demand can be an impetus to economic growth, including export-oriented industries.

27-43 579
Abstract

The article analyzes the ratio of monetary and non-monetary factors and their impact on the dynamics of inflation in Russia in the period from 2011 to 2021. Econometric analysis of the dependence of inflation on various factors was carried out for this period on the basis of quarterly data. Price dynamics was estimated using the CPI (consumer price index) and the GDP deflator. The obtained results were compared with the studies of inflation dynamics in Russia carried out in previous years. Both common and distinctive features of monetary and non-monetary factors were identified. For example, the dynamics of the total CPI in the compared periods was formed under the influence of similar monetary factors, but their share increased: in the period 2011–2021 amounted to 50 %, and in the period 2001–2016 only 40 %. The nature of non-monetary factors in the two periods is noticeably different. In 2001–2016, the dynamics of real incomes of the population and inflation expectations influenced. In 2011–2021, these non-monetary factors lose their influence, giving way to the growth rate of railroad tariffs for freight transportation. The calculations for the GDP deflator confirmed the importance of non-monetary factors in inflationary processes in 2011–2021. When developing anti-inflationary measures, both the Federal Government and the Bank of Russia should take into account the ratio of monetary and non-monetary factors in terms of their short-term and long-term impact on inflation.

44-59 241
Abstract

For a long time search of resources and sources for increase of labor productivity is a priority direction in activity of public authorities of all levels and important scientific problem in the field of economy and management. In domestic scientific thought there is a noticeable lack of knowledge in the designated area of research in relation to health care institutions. At the same time in the works of foreign authors it is possible to find numerous examples of the analysis of influence of various factors on the medical personnel productivity. Guided by this premise, the purpose of the present study was to evaluate the statistical dependence, as well as the closeness and directions of the relationship between the labor productivity indicator and the individual factors, influencing this indicator in the Russian health care in the period from 2010 to 2020. To achieve the goal of the study, the authors used the literature data presented in the works of domestic and foreign authors, as well as information of Rosstat in the sections “Healthcare of Russia” and “National Accounts of Russia”. Correlation and regression analyses were performed using the cross-platform software package for econometric analysis Gretl. When developing the econometric model, the least squares method (LSM) with observance of the mandatory Gauss-Markov condition was used. In the course of the conducted research, the relationship between labor productivity, calculated by the cost method, and individual factors, which have a different degree of impact on this indicator, was shown. A strong direct statistically significant relationship between this indicator, consolidated budget expenditures and the volume of investment in fixed capital has been proved. It is shown that labor productivity in health care in the period under study tended to grow, which took place against the background of annual reduction in the number of medical personnel, which may indicate a shortage of staff and the increase in labor intensity. The obtained results can be demanded by healthcare management bodies to improve the performance of medical organizations.

MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS

60-82 352
Abstract

Within the framework of this study, a method is being developed for applying the results of the information background analysis model to the expectations formation model of adaptively learning economic agents in the general formulation of the DSGE model. This method is tested on a small DSGE model of the Russian economy with adaptive learning, developed by us at the IEIE SB RAS. Using this model as an example, we show that the proposed method improves the fit of the data simulated by the model to economic statistics, which makes it possible to use this model to predict macroeconomic indicators, comparing different scenarios for economic development depending on the future information background sentiment. We conclude that news flow management has an impact on the economy performance and can potentially be used as an element of economic policy, whose consequences can be evaluated using our method. The versatility of the method proposed in this paper allows its application to be extended to a wide range of DSGE models used by central banks in most countries of the world.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

83-103 231
Abstract

The heterogeneity of economic space is its natural property. At the same time, high levels of inequality can become a threat to the integrity of the socio-economic system and cause its slower development. In this regard, the problem of uneven spatial development is relevant for spatially extended economies (both national and regional) and is reflected in strategic planning documents. This article is devoted to the issues of spatial development of the largest subject of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), – whose socio-economic development strategy notes increased intra-regional differentiation and disunity of economic zones, which is classified as the main challenges to the spatial development of the region. At the same time, this strategy does not highlight a list of measures to reduce the difference in the level of development of municipal districts, and also does not indicate the consequences of the implementation of the activities and projects planned by the strategy in the context of the spatial development of the region and its unevenness. In this paper in the context of municipal districts, an assessment was made of the effects of the implementation of large investment projects in the mining sector, which, according to the development strategy of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), will remain the main source of economic growth in the region. The study was conducted using a regional intersectoral model taking into account multiplier effects and spatial heterogeneity. Based on the obtained estimates, it is shown that the implementation of raw materials projects can cause an increase in intra-regional differentiation of economic development. The possibility of shrinking the economic space of the region in the absence of measures to equalize imbalances is noted. As a compensatory mechanism for the spatial heterogeneity of effects, an increase in the localization of effects from the implementation of these projects in various areas (localization of production, employment, redistribution of the part of the rent withdrawn from the extractive sector to the tasks of spatial development of the region) is considered.

104-120 340
Abstract

The formation of a digital economy is one of the important stages in the formation of a new technological structure both in the world in general and in Russia in particular. The priority and significance of the development of information and communication technologies is highlighted in a number of strategies and program documents of the Russian Federation. However, the gap between the leading and lagging Russian regions in a number of indicators of the spread and use of digital technologies is very high. In this regard, this study is devoted to the identification and assessment of factors affecting the spread of information and communication technologies and their use by economic entities, with the aim of reducing the existing level of digital inequality. The analysis of panel data for Russian regions, covering the time period from 2017 to 2021, showed that regions with a higher level of human capital development and a younger population have advantages in the development of the digital economy, which are long-term. The efforts of the state in the form of subsidies, as well as investments in the digital economy in the form of costs for information and communication technologies, are significant primarily for the public service sector and the population and do not have a noticeable impact on the digitalization of business.

INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS

121-135 336
Abstract

Introduction. A well-developed infrastructure is key to the success of any business or country. It stimulates economic development, cost reduction, mobility and access to basic services. In order to speed up the development of infrastructure, governments around the world have turned to a tool such as the Public Private Partnership (PPP). PPPs can be initiated either by a public party, which involves competitive bidding (solicited proposals), or by a private investor, in which case the mechanism is called unsolicited proposals (USP). This article attempts to conceptualise the validity of the practical implementation of USP in PPPs. It focuses on identifying the motives of the parties, the organisational mechanisms used, and the benefits and limitations of USP. The study takes into account existing world practice and data from peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Methods. The study is based on a literature review of peer-reviewed scientific articles indexed in citation databases such as Scopus, Web of Science and eLibrary.Ru. In addition, data from open sources such as the Rosinfra reports and the World Bank Group’s “Private Participation in Infrastructure” database have been used.

Results. The analysis showed that the results of USP are associated with (1) a number of conflicting motives of public and private parties, (2) the specificities of the organisational approach, and (3) a possible set of positive or negative outcomes. This explains, in our view, the uneven use of USP by groups of countries with different levels of economic development. As a result, we propose the conceptual scheme of the use of USP in PPPs.

Discussion. The results are in line with the data of other researchers and point to the potential and prospects for further use of USP in PPPs. Further research will be devoted to collecting and processing statistical data on the results of UPS in a number of countries. This will allow a more rational approach to the development of organisational and management mechanisms for the implementation of PPP projects based on USP. This will ensure maximum socio-economic impact.

MANAGEMENT

136-149 229
Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the complex relationship between corporate governance, ownership structure, financial structure and strategic performance of companies. Overall conclusions are determined based on a detailed review of existing research. The results highlight the importance of the independent audit committee, the separation of the roles of the chairman of the board of directors (BoD) and the CEO, the frequency of board meetings on company performance. In addition, the impact of the composition and size of the board of directors and corporate governance committees on various performance variables is analyzed. This study also highlights the need to consider multiple aspects in assessing company performance and establishes a U-shaped relationship between the share of company ownership by its managers or board members and strategic efficiency. Future research should continue to explore these aspects, taking into account different periods and stages of economic development, taking into account the specifics of developed and developing countries.

150-167 258
Abstract

The transformation of the external business environment of Russian enterprises operating in the machinery and equipment repair market is currently very significant due to general geopolitical tensions and anti-Russian sanctions, as well as changes in supply chains, this affects the opportunities that can be used by enterprises and risks, which must be taken into account. However, an important aspect in maintaining and increasing the competitiveness of repair enterprises is the adaptation of their business processes to the changes taking place, therefore, the issues of building a successful process management model that is directly related to the specifics of the enterprise’s business processes and can be considered as a factor of increasing competitiveness come to the fore. The purpose of the study is to identify the role of the process management model in increasing the competitiveness of repair enterprises and to identify specific areas for improving the business processes of enterprises for the repair of tires and equipment. The research methods are: comparative analysis of sources, statistical analysis, mathematical analysis of efficiency, PEST analysis, the method of analyzing hierarchies by T.L. Saati, the BCG matrix. The result of the study is recommendations for the development of a project to improve the business processes of the LLC Gidrotehtrade enterprise and an assessment of its effectiveness. The authors conclude that one of the directions for improving the business processes of an enterprise for the repair of machinery and equipment is the automation of business management processes using domestic software, as part of the import substitution program, which, in turn, increases not only the degree of coverage of the opportunities provided by the digital economy by 15%, but also increases the level of information security of the enterprise by 25%.

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ISSN 2542-0429 (Print)
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)