Several organizations are involved in forecasting the dynamics of the Russian economy, ranging from government bodies (Ministry of Economic Development, Bank of Russia) to foreign centers (World Bank, International Monetary Fund, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods used by organizations to develop scenarios for the development of the Russian economy, as well as a comparative analysis of the results of medium-term forecasting for key macro indicators. 
For constructing short- and medium-term forecasts, the most preferred approaches are DSGE models, balance-econometric models and time series models. For long-term forecasting, an input-output approach and tools based on the Solow-Swann model are used. In addition, some organizations use consensus forecasts, which are formed on the basis of expert opinions of leading specialists in the field of macroeconomic forecasting. 
The results of the work indicate that the estimates of macroeconomic organizations are quite similar in the forecast dynamics of real GDP (the average annual growth rate corresponds to approximately 2 %). In addition, each of the organizations predicts an increase in the capital intensity of the Russian economy by 2026. 
The results of the work can serve as an information base for coordination with the results of the MRIOM being developed at the IEIE SB RAS, which will reduce labor intensity and improve the quality of selecting model scenarios.

The article presents a quantitative correlation of monetary and non-monetary factors and the extent of their influence on the inflation rate in Russia in the period from 2009 to 2022. The price dynamics was estimated using the consumer price index (by category) and the GDP deflator. Econometric analysis of inflation dependence on various factors was carried out on the basis of quarterly data. The purpose of the study is to test the hypothesis that during crises in Russia the role of non-monetary factors dominates, but gradually their influence wears off and the role of monetary factors becomes stronger. The period under study from 2009 to 2022 is a difficult and recessive period for the Russian economy. It is connected with the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and large-scale financial and economic sanctions of the last three years. Therefore, separate calculations were carried out for the time period 2009-2019. A comparative analysis of the factors that influenced inflation was carried out for both periods. The results of the calculations showed that the share of non-monetary factors rises for the consumer price index for food and services in 2009-2022 to about 75 %. The share of monetary factors for the overall CPI drops to 50 % between 2009 and 2022, although it was 67 % in the period from 2009 to 2019. The nature of the monetary factors in the two periods differs markedly for both the CPI and the GDP deflator. In 2009-2022, the inflation dynamics was affected by the growth of the MIACR rate, while the change in the real money supply turned out to be an insignificant factor. The hypothesis was proven to be valid on the whole. The calculations showed that for the period 2009-2022 non-monetary nature of inflation is preserved, at the same time the role of monetary factors in some categories is growing. For example, two thirds of the CPI for non-food products was formed by monetary factors. Among non-monetary factors, the dynamics of real GDP, tariffs of natural monopolies, as well as changes in real wages and oil prices have the greatest impact on the inflation rate. The ratio of monetary and non-monetary factors is important to consider when developing anti-inflationary measures both by the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia in terms of their short-term and long-term impact on inflation.

The article discusses development of the financial block in an agent-based multiregional inter-sectoral input-output model of the Russian economy. The model now includes a unified commercial bank and the Central Bank as agents. Behavioral algorithms were created for non-bank agents to govern fund flows, fund management, and other financial activities. The experiments confirmed that the model expanded in this way accurately enough reflects the behavior of economic agents in the financial sphere. The additions to the model will make it possible to study the dynamic processes associated with lending to the economy and to evaluate the consequences of certain monetary policy measures. An open issue remains on how to introduce into the model elements that would enable representing cost-push inflation.

An analysis is presented of equilibrium bargaining solutions to the problem of the working interest distribution in a risky project amongst co-investors whose preferences are described by the Cozzolino formula. Atypical project could be an oil or gas exploration venture. It is shown that any Pareto-efficient distribution of the project cash flows can be achieved by dividing the working interest among the partners proportionally to individual risk tolerance values, which is equivalent to the maximization of a synergetic valuation measure that we propose to call the Cozzolino Rent. This Cozzolino Rent then can be re-distributed among the partners according to their bargaining power. Applications of the proposed approach to the group financing of ventures of various complexity are presented including projects with simple binary outcome and complex projects that require managing several inter-related risky assets as real options.

Currently, the development of high-tech business is a critical condition for the growth of the national economy and ensuring the economic security of our country. Not only established companies in the industry, but also new players in the high-tech and knowledge-intensive sector who bring innovative ideas and solutions play a role in achieving technological sovereignty. At the same time, not all newly created firms survive in the market (9 out of 10 startups fail)l. The purpose of this study is to identify the conditions that contribute to small young high-tech companies surviving and continuing to develop successfully in the market. The identification of the success factors of technology companies at the early stages of the life cycle (startups) may allow government organizations to adjust the policy of supporting young market entities. The contribution to the identification of a set of conditions favorable to the emergence and further operation of young technology firms in Russia determines the significance of this study. The following methods were used in the research: in-depth interviews, analysis and synthesis, case study. As a result of a comparative analysis of the successful development experience of the studied startups, the role of partnerships and state support in the formation and strengthening of these companies in the market was highlighted. This made it possible to offer certain recommendations in the field of state support for emerging organizations.

The article provides an analysis of the export and import of mechanical engineering and metallurgical products - with details on certain areas of production - based on which a conclusion is made about the high degree of import dependence of mechanical engineering and the export-oriented nature of metallurgy, which led to a “desynchronization” of the results of the functioning of these types of economic activity for Russia: domestic metallurgy can be considered the basis for Russian mechanical engineering based on the results of functioning in the period up to2022 with a very big stretch. An attempt was made to assess the possible parameters of the functioning of mechanical engineering and metallurgy in Russia during the implementation of the updated Consolidated Strategy for the Development of the Manufacturing Industry until 2030 and for the period up to 2035. The assessment of the parameters is based on the premise that an increase in the production of mechanical engineering products will accordingly cause an increase in metallurgical production in accordance with the indicators of the Consolidated Strategy. According to the Consolidated Strategy, mechanical engineering, as the main producer of high-tech products, should increase its production volume by 2.5 times by 2035. In accordance with this, metallurgical production should increase, while maintaining the basic level of intermediate consumption of metallurgical products in mechanical engineering. Based on these indicators, using the table of use of domestic products in basic prices, possible parameters of future changes in the interaction of metallurgy and mechanical engineering were determined. Hypothetically, an increase in the output of metallurgical products should require 2.6 trillion rubles of investment in metallurgical production and 5.4 trillion rubles in mechanical engineering.

The paper examines the reaction of municipalities in the Novosibirsk region to the shocks of the COVID pandemic in 2020 and the second wave of sanctions in 2022 and tests the hypothesis of the universality of the adaptive properties of their economies. The study of the spatial heterogeneity of the response to external shocks allows us to assess the overall stability of the economic system. The indicator of the municipality’s economic activity was the indicator of the own production, the provision of works and services. Based on this indicator the reaction to the shock and the restoration of business activity of the territory after the shock were evaluated. Both the response to the shocks and the recovery of the municipalities’ economies have been extremely heterogeneous. The impact of restrictions caused by coronavirus was stronger compared to the 2022 sanctions, both in terms of output reduction and the level of heterogeneity of the compensatory response. Maps showing the distribution of shock effects across municipalities and recovery from them did not reveal spatial patterns. The reaction ofboth the conditional “center” and the “periphery” of the region was heterogeneous, large spatial clusters with similar dynamics were not distinguished as well. A comparison of the degree of shock and the level of recovery after shocks did not confirm the assumption of universal sustainability of municipalities, adaptation characteristics differed, and many territories demonstrated an asymmetric response to the shocks of 2020-2022. The correlation analysis did not reveal significant dependencies of shock resistance and subsequent recovery on the economic, structural and institutional characteristics of the territory. Obviously, the main role in overcoming crises was played by subjective factors: personal initiative and entrepreneurship of the population and local authorities. The asymmetry of reactions to the shocks of 2020-2022 may be because the adaptation mechanisms tested during the coronavirus were involved during the sanctions period. The need to develop a sustainable development model was realized where the negative effects of the pandemic were stronger.

The Republic of Buryatia, located in the northern part of Asia, is characterized by significant biodiversity and rich natural resource potential. However, active economic activity, including mining, industrial production and energy, leads to significant environmental problems, especially in the field of air pollution and water resources. In recent years, there has been an increase in emissions of pollutants from stationary sources, which complicates the environmental situation, especially in the cities of Ulan-Ude, Selenginsk and Gusinoozersk. Despite the measures taken to reduce pollution, the region continues to face environmental challenges that require further analysis and the development of strategies to mitigate them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the environmental problems of the Republic of Buryatia on the example of pollution of water and atmospheric resources using the Ecological Kuznets curve (EKC). The EKC allows us to assess the impact of economic development on the environment, which helps to develop effective measures to reduce the negative impact of economic activity on the environment.

With the intensive path of development of a post-industrial society in conditions of high intensity of exchange processes at the level of extreme restrictions, it is necessary to find a compromise between the organization of complex systems and processes and the spontaneous nature of their uncertainty. Therefore, at present, existing approaches to the study of metabolic processes, including on the basis of statistical theory, and trends in their development are of scientific interest. This paper presents the essence of the traditional technology for obtaining the most common distribution laws of the general population by the example of their use in the field of water transport operation. A study and assessment of the state of this technology and its features are presented, and the ambiguity of the scheme used is shown. The scientific results in this field are presented with an analysis of their objectivity, the conventions and inaccuracies present in them, as well as their value to science. The existing problems are identified by generalizing, systematizing, comparing, analyzing, criticizing and evaluating the use of various distribution laws in this area. The prospects for the development of statistical theory in order to apply it to describe metabolic processes are described. With the growing dissatisfaction with the use of traditional statistical theory to describe problems of organized complexity, as one of the fundamental problems of modem scientific research, these studies can serve as the basis for developing an order for science in the field of statistical analysis.

There are several dimensions of the value of primary housing as an economic asset for the owner: consumer (functional), symbolic and investment. In relation to the functional dimension, reflection occurs in the plane of correlating the needs of the owner and l or his family and the characteristics of housing. The symbolic and investment dimensions of the value of housing go beyond the individual or intra-family. Here, the quality of the living environment, including the symbolic significance of the place of residence, the economic situation at the macro level (in the country) and meso level (quality of supply on the local housing market) are of decisive importance. The materials of focus groups, which included residents of the Novosibirsk Akademgorodok, a unique and widely known territorial entity, were analyzed through the prism of these attitudes.

The article proposes a theoretical and methodological approach to the study of the sphere of industrial labour by relying on the semiotic model of social space, communication and labour. In the space of the key socio-philosophical and socio-semiotic theories of Kristeva, Rorty and Lotman the mechanism of overcoming labour alienation by design engineers and employees of Russian industrial enterprises is argued and investigated. It is interpreted as a process defined by the framework of everyday language and constituted within the discursive practices of employees at different levels of the social structure of industrial enterprises. It is shown that overcoming objective alienation is possible at certain moments associated with the transformation (shift) of the institutional boundaries of both the language game and the corresponding them at the level of social realities of interaction between labour regimes in industrial production. For this purpose, for the first time in Russian sociology, the method of research of moments (moment analysis) is used.