MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
This article is a first chapter of an analytical review of existing theoretical models of a relationship between economic growth / GRP and indicators of scientific development and innovation activities, as well as empirical approaches to testing this relationship. Aim of the paper is a systematization of existing approaches to modeling of economic growth geared by science and innovations. The novelty of the current review lies in the authors’ criteria of interconnectedness of theoretical and empirical studies in the systematization of a wide range of publications presented in a final tablescheme. In the first part of the article the authors discuss evolution of theoretical approaches, while the second chapter presents a time gap between theories and their empirical verification caused by the level of development of quantitative instruments such as econometric models. The results of this study can be used by researchers and graduate students for familiarization with current scientific approaches that manifest progress from theory to empirical verification of a relationship «economic growth-innovations» for improvement of different types of models in spatial econometrics. To apply these models to management practices the presented review could be supplemented with new criteria for classification of knowledge production functions and other theories about effect of science on economic growth.
The main accents of adaptation of the economic mathematical tools of long-term forecasting for solving the strategic planning problems and the adequate accounting of institutional conditions are defined through the systematization of researches conducted by the leading institutes of the RAS. The state strategic planning and management problems are analyses in article. A feature of the present stage is the plurality of methodologies for the development of documents and tools for coordinating the interests of participants, lack of different levels documents continuity, the coordination procedures duration. New subjects to strategic planning have appeared – the multiregional and diversified megaprojects directed to formation of a new infrastructure and industrial basis in Russia, exploitation of natural resources of the Arctic and the East of Russia. Megaprojects have nationwide value, high cost and a significant amount of participants, but aren't built into the existing threelevel structure of management. The purpose of the article is to reveal the main directions of methodical approaches and tools for solving the problems of strategic planning and management transformation, to prove the expediency of institutional changes. It is offered to allocate the meso-level in the hierarchical structure of the state strategic planning, where the forecasts and national development strategies for branches and macroregions will be transformed into a set of complex megaprojects with the identification of participants – business communities of investment projects. At the meso-level, it is necessary to create the centers for strategic development of resource megaprojects with the direct participation of business communities
The complexity and multidimensionality of the processes of social and economic development creates a basis for improvement of the traditional approaches to modeling and forecasting economic growth existing in theory. The main goal of the work is the creation of scenario and predictive models for the development of industrial production of the national economy based on an assessment of expectations of economic agents.Based on the carried-out cross-correlation analysis of the set of factors of institutional and tactical order influencing the aggregated trends of economic growth, parameters of their influence on the system of forming expectations of economic agents are identified. Using the methods of econometric analysis, the values of the subindexes that determine integral estimates of the indexes of advancing development (IAD), quantitatively assessing expectations of economic agents regarding the transformations in institutional and tactical environment in concentrated form, are determined. It allowed us to reveal the parameters of the multiple choice model characterizing interrelation between expectations and industrial development of the national economic system. Based on the results of the approbation of the presented approach, scenarios of the development of industrial production in the Russian Federation for the medium-term period (until 2020) are developed, taking into account the programming of individual institutional and tactical factors that generate the system of expectations of economic entities. It is established that high rates of industrial development that promote overcoming structural problems in economy can be formed, mainly, in case of realization of the institutional transformations creating a stable basis for generation of positive, steady expectations concerning the transformation of the existing mode forming the mechanisms of macroeconomic shifts. The main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used by the scientific community, as well as representatives of business and state bodies in developing forecasts of social and economic growth and justification of development mechanisms.
In this paper the interaction between the production macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy and MIBOR (the main operational benchmark of the Bank of Russia), as well as the relationship between the inflation indicators and money supply were investigated with Bayesian approach. Conjugate Normal Inverse Wishart Prior was used. According to the study, tough monetary policy has a deterrent effect on the Russian economy. The growth of the money market rate causes a reduction in investments and output in the main sectors of the economy, as well as a drop in the income of the population with an increase in the unemployment rate
The aim of the study is obtaining the resistance values of the economic environment on the basis of statistical data. The equations of change in the increase of renewable production factors that take into account the impact of the economic environment are used for this purpose. The influence of the economic environment is determined by the available business opportunities: fiscal policy, lending capabilities, level of competition, availability and education of workforce, embargo and various sanctions. The mathematical apparatus of vector analysis is the main tool of the study. The result of this research was the determination of the resistance of the economic environment of several European economies
Nowadays, shadow economy researchers are faced with the several problems of the correct estimation of its size. Each method, which is used to measure the proportion of the shadow economy, has its specific problems, connected with its distinctive features. The underground economy estimation method used by Daniel Kaufman and Aleksandr Kaliberda is based on the idea that the shadow economy can be estimated using tools that can be measured with a high level of accuracy (in our case it is electricity consumption). The authors suggest that the electricity-to-GDP elasticity is equal to one, and any deviation from a single elasticity is a sign of a change in the shadow economy. However, principles of the global technology are changing as fast as the culture of the electricity consumption. Based on this, the assumption of the unit elasticity provides biased estimates of the size of the shadow economy.
In this paper, we tried to modernize the original approach, step by step, solving the problem of the dynamic component of electricity consumption and we estimate the size of the shadow economy of Russia for 2014-2016.
The objectives of the study are the development of a mathematical description of the
budget block of the DIOM (dynamic input-output model) of the economy of the RB (Republic of Buryatia), as well as the preparation of the basic elements of information support for this block. The inclusion of the budget block in the DIOM RB allows linking the dynamics of production, incomes and expenditures of the budget of the republic within the framework of the model, opens the possibility of increasing the validity of budget forecasts. The paper describes the problems of forming the revenue side of the budget of the Republic of Buryatia and briefly characterizes the main prospective sources of additional revenues of the republican budget.
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
The article reviews the history of cluster policy in Russia at the federal and regional levels. The federal cluster policy is realized in three directions, studying which allowed us to outline the main features of a formalized cluster that claims state support. The trend of reorientation of the cluster policy from supporting clusters and their infrastructure to cluster projects is revealed. Systematization and comparative analysis of the cluster policy in the regions of the country leading in terms of cluster development is carried out. It is established that the regional cluster policy is at a nascent stage and is a projection of the federal programs. At the regional level, there is no institutional basis for the cluster policy in Russia. The regional cluster policy is characterized by homogeneity of organizational structures.
The article discusses the dynamics of fertility and mortality in the regions of the Siberian federal district. The aim of the study is identification of current trends in fertility and mortality in the district as a whole and analysis of the specificity of individual regions within the area for justification of the main directions of demographic policy at the regional level. The object of the study is the fertility
and mortality of the population, the subject is the indicators of the regional fertility and mortality in the Siberian federal district.
For the analysis of fertility trends authors use such indicators as total and age-specific fertility and average age of mother at birth of the child. The research includes interregional comparison of indicators of life expectancy and age-specific mortality rates, analysis of the features of level and dynamics of the standardized mortality rate and mortality by causes.
According to the results, the main cause of the decline in births in the 1990s in the Siberian federal district was the reduction of the early births and currently this trend continues. In addition to delaying the first birth, there is a widespread increase in second and third births, which, on the contrary, are shifting to earlier ages. The gap between the highest and lowest life expectancy in the regions of the Siberian federal district in 2015 is 8 years. The analysis of the standardized mortality rate showed that the mortality rates of the Siberian federal district are among the highest in Russia. Among the regions of the Siberian Federal district the most affected are the Republic of Tyva, the Irkutsk region and the Kemerovo region, where the cause of the current situation is high mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, external causes, infectious and parasitic diseases and diseases of the digestive system.
The abolition of the administrative regulation of economic activity in Russia has triggered the processes of its territorial concentration, leading to the polarization of regions in terms of economic activity. From the theoretical point of view, the territorial concentration of production contributes to an increase in labor productivity. At the same time, the concentration of economic activity leads not only to the growth of productivity in regions of concentration of production, but also influences neighboring territories.
The main purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of labor productivity in the regions of the Russian Federation in connection with the ongoing processes of concentration of economic activity, as well as the role of spatial external effects in the dynamics of regional indicators of productivity. The paper uses statistical methods of analysis and an approach to the study of inequality and dynamics of regional distribution based on the use of Markov chains.
Conclusions are drawn about the faster growth of labor productivity in regions of concentration of economic activity, about the polarization of regions by the level of labor productivity, and about spatial external effects generated by regional economies with high productivity. The character of these external effects depends on the degree of regional differences. Spatial effects are negative when regional differences are significant, while positive effects manifest when differentiation of regional economies in terms of labor productivity is low.
MANAGEMENT
Smartphones global market is one of the most dynamically developing markets that can be characterized by high level of competition. The growth of smartphones homogeneity, which is a reduction in difference between technical and functional parameters of smartphones produced by various manufacturers, can be considered the market’s specific feature.
The unique situation of high-tech product homogeneity in a fast-growing market is scantily described in specialized literature. The article shows changeability of smartphones global market leaders and explains that the key success factor in such a mature market is marketing.
Based on secondary information, marketing strategies of long standing market leader in sales Samsung and overtaking Apple companies are determined as well as strategies of contenders for leadership – Chinese companies Huawei and Lenovo. It is shown on Lenovo case that inexplicit positioning leads to a loss of the growing market share due to offensive marketing strategies of other Chinese companies. The research results broaden the knowledge of methodical potential of marketing strategies in companies’ activities in competitive markets of homogeneous high-tech products.
The article is dedicated to identification and evaluation of the factors that contribute to the development of the digital economy in the regions of the Russian Federation. The research made it possible to assess the dependency of the indexes of distribution and use of digital technologies in the main sectors of economy – the business sector, households, public services segment – on regional characteristics. It is shown that the level of information and communication technologies (ICT) development in the business sector and in households is affected by the per capita GRP and the share of workforce with higher education. This conclusion confirms the tendencies outlined for developed countries: richer and more educated regions have long-term advantages in the development of the digital economy. The state’s efforts in the form of subsidies are significant, mainly, for the public services sector, and do not have a considerable effect on the digitalization of the other sectors of economy.
METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
The article deals with the concept of modernization and its stages, proposed by the Center for the Modernization of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under the guidance of Professor He Chuanqi and subsequently adapted to the Russian realities by the Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences under the leadership of Nicolay Lapin, as well as the level and heterogeneity of the modernization of the Russian regions. The authors explain the connection between the level of development of secondary modernization and such a characteristic of human capital of the population as creativity, suggest the definition of the secondary modernization subject, representing creative class, and the rationale for the applicability of the creativity index to refine the parameters of the secondary modernization. The importance of the regional context for studying the modernization process in Russia is noted taking into account the historically established asymmetry of the placement of natural, socio-economic and cultural factors.
The expert survey of government officials responsible for the information policy and using information technologies in their interaction with citizens in the Volgograd region was conducted to analyze the main aspects and prospects for e-participation development. The aims of the survey are to analyze the efficiency of e-participation services in the Volgograd region, to reveal the problems and obstacles that might limit the access to e-participation initiatives and to find the ways to overcome them, to evaluate the citizens' activity and awareness of government officials about the most important aspects of e-participation. The results of the expert survey show that the reasons for the insufficient level of e-participation in the Volgograd region are low activity of citizens, complexity of e-services and insufficient transparency of local governments. According to the experts’ viewpoint citizens of the Volgograd region have fewer opportunities in e-participation than citizens of the country as a whole. Only two e-participation mechanisms used in Russia are in demand in the Volgograd region – information delivery and citizens’ surveys. The research shows that local governments do not use many of the e-participation tools to interact with citizens.
The increase of “friendliness” of the education system towards individuals with disabilities (people with health limitations), especially the development of inclusive education, is a relatively recent humanistic trend that has been set by the most economically developed societies and in which our country has been responsibly integrating for the last two decades. The article summarizes the results of the survey that was conducted in 2017 among NSU graduates with disabilities. The study was aimed at describing how higher education promotes acquisition of the social and physical space by individuals with disabilities, which means ensuring the social inclusion.
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