MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
The article is devoted to the correspondence between the dynamics of the labor productivity and the one of the level of consumption. The purpose of this paper is to identify the trends of cross-country convergence-divergence of considered indicators. Particular attention is given to China's role in contemporary processes of globalization. The traditional methods of mathematical statistics are used to measure differentiation. The empirical base is the data for the period of 1980-2010, covering about thirty countries, which are developed and emerging markets (according to the IMF classification).
The of work resulted in revealing a fundamentally new phenomena of the 2000s coming from the cross-country convergence of indicators such as productivity and consumption due to the dominating growth of these indicators in the countries-outsiders. It is concluded that the global space of consumption per capita and labor productivity is narrowed to a certain extent. However, excluding China convergence process is not visible or almost not visible.
It was shown at the same time that the predominant (compared with productivity) dynamics of consumption is not always accompanied by a high growth rate of consumption over a long time interval.
The article analyzes the macroeconomic effects arising as a result of the spread of energy saving technologies for the production of artificial cold in the industrial and commercial sector, which are an alternative to electric technologies that extremely prevail today in the RF (vapor compression refrigerating machines). These effects are simulated using multi-regional I-O model of vector optimization with a detailed representation of the energy sector (OMMM-TEK). The model is adapted for representation of production of cold as a separate branch of production in regional I-O balances. The efficiency of spread of the sorption refrigeration units (SRU) is considered on a national scale at action of a factor of uncertainty of their cost. In similar regional scenarios the receptivity of the economic environment of certain macroregions to the spread of SRU is considered. As a result of comparison of regional scenarios from the standpoint of macroeconomic efficiency the spectrum of possible regional preferences for spread of SRU was obtained. The spectrum can be used at a decision-making in the field of formation of innovative policy at the federal and regional levels.
The article lists factors affecting the socio-economic situation and questions concerning unemployment in Russia are discussed specifically. The purpose is to identify weak points in the labor market. Visual support reflects the dynamics of unemployment in Russia during economy crisis. Unemployment trends by federal districts, the causes of regional unemployment imbalances are examined. The novelty of the author's approach is to forecast the unemployment rate for future periods with expert assessments to determine the risk of deviation of unemployment from trend. Data were analyzed in terms of unemployment level in Europe and comparison with Russian indicators was conducted. Based on the research, causes of unemployment in Russia and ways of its decline were discovered. Appropriate conclusions were made.
MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTS
The paper is devoted to the current state and the problems of formation of the financial mechanism of environmental protection. The authors identified main sources of costs for environmental purposes and analyzed the trend of reducing the fiscal costs of environmental protection. Particular emphasis is placed on the legal aspects of the use of payments for negative impact on the environment, including the abandonment of the use of funds to the budget as the price of a negative impact on the environment. The reasons for the inefficient use of budget funds allocated for environmental purposes are analyzed. The importance of environmental funds in the financing of environmental activities is shown, It suggested to restore this element of the financial mechanism of environmental regulation in Russia. The importance of programmer - oriented approach to solving environmental problems is marked. The possible elements of the financial mechanism for the implementation of environmental protection measures are proposed. The main difficulties including stimulating effect in the economic mechanism of nature conservation and environmental protection are marked.
The article considers the dynamics of gas production in Russia, the structure of sales in the different market segments, as well as comparative dynamics of selling prices on these segments. Problems of approach to the creation of the gas complex using a simulation model, allowing to estimate efficiency of the project and determine the stability region of the obtained solutions. In the presented model takes into account the unit repayment of the loan, allowing with the first year of simulation to determine the possibility of repayment of the loan. The model object is a group of gas fields, which is determined by the minimum flow rate above which the project is cost-effective.
In determining the minimum source flow rate for the norm of discount is taken as a generalized weighted average percentage on debt and equity taking into account risk premiums. He also serves as the lower barrier to internal rate of return below which the project is rejected as ineffective.
Analysis of the dynamics and methods of expert evaluation allow to determine the intervals of variation of the simulated parameters, such as the price of gas and the exit gas complex at projected capacity. Calculated using the Monte Carlo method, for each random realization of the model simulated values of parameters allow to obtain a set of optimal for each realization of values minimum yield of wells, and also allows to determine the stability region of the solution.
The article discusses the conceptual set of economic-mathematical problems, the solution of which allows to evaluate the optimized estimated efficiency of innovative regional clusters, bringing together mining and processing raw materials production, in its three forms – for the regional economy, for the cluster itself as an integration structure that creates a systematic and synergetic effect for its participants; for each of the cluster members, pending the manifestation of the effect of the diversification of their activities, that is, in an article talking about the triune efficiency created or existing cluster. As an example, the article is considered a pilot innovative territorial clusters «Complex processing of coal and industrial waste» in Kemerovo region
MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS
The fuzzy random pairs approach is developed in [1] in order to study fuzzy set properties of random pointwise set mappings. The articles proposes generalization of the fuzzy random pairs approach for research of stochastic processes. The generalization is initiated by an approach to exploration of uncertainty in research project supported with an RFBR grant no. 15-06-06914, which is based on application of the Geske model modification. Mathematical description of the generalization is carried out for an example of a real venture-backed investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing.
The generalization essence is in the following: 1) time variable in a random process is replaced with a random value , distributed uniformly within a segment , which turns the process into a bidimensional random value , defined on ; 2) the random value value is translated into a random pointwise set mapping using the interval translation; 3) in order to translate the random pointwise set mapping into a fuzzy set and to build its membership function a stochastic algorithm is used; 4) for fuzzy set exploration of the resulting pointwise set mapping the fuzzy random pairs approach is used.
The solution of the Geske model is a stochastic process defined on a finite segment of time. The article contains main definitions and adaptations of abstract procedures of fuzzy set approach to the real investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing. A detailed research of this project attributes with the use of suggested fuzzy set approach lays beyond the frame of the article and should be the subject of an independent applied research.
REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Sustainable development of the state is provided by means of balanced socio-economic development of all its regions. The most important condition for regional economic development is complete and the high activity of regional business structures, which is determined by their financial capabilities. The article presents a comparative analysis of the financial performance of enterprises and organizations in the two selected areals: the metropolitan and regional. On the basis of the real, unadjusted statistical data traced difference of capabilities and dynamics of changes health of areal’s business. Using the methods of statistical and regression analysis allowed to justify conclusions about the excessive differentiation of the business opportunities of the capital and the regions and build a forecast of further degradation of regional economies, while maintaining the current trend. Formulated conclusions and recommendations for return to the area of ratios which allowing to maintain the trend of sustainable development.
In the modern global economy international integration associations are full subjects of it. However, the changing world is changing the integration inquiry: there is the transformation of the integration processes because of globalization. A key principle of the integration process is to accelerate the economic development of the system and its individual composes through the implementation of the integration potential. In this regard, the article researches the integration potential of BRICS (an informal association consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as a significant subject of the world economy, including it analyzes trade flows of these countries using the index method. Moreover, it researches the investment potential of BRICS as the part of the integration potential. Finally, it focuses on the association institutionalization in the monetary sphere. Research has shown that the integration potential of BRICS opens new prospects for cooperation and development of the member countries. At the same time the creation of new financial institutions in the framework of the association (in particular, the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement) can help to strengthen the cooperation among the countries and to promote more representative global governance.
Ensuring of the state economic security suggests the fight against threats to such security.At the same time it is extremely important, firstly, to understand the essence of a threat to economic security and, secondly, to identify the common characteristics of threats allowing to systematize them and to determine the necessary measures to neutralize them on this basis.
The traditional approach offers a classification of economic security threats depending on areas of their origin but it is impossible to determine the gravity of the threat to the economy and ways of neutralizing it.In this context we propose allocation of the economic threats to five groups depends on a number of characteristics that determine the level of their negative impact to the economy.
Such classification of threats to economic security of Tajikistan helped to determine neutralization of which of them requires outside support, what requires priority within the framework of the strategy of economic security and national economic policy, and what does not require serious government efforts and may be neutralized automatically during neutralization of the other threats.
INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
Oil and gas sector is key sector for the Russian economy. General socio-economic benefits from the development of oil and gas resources are largely dependent on the policies implemented by oil companies. Therefore, the most important task of the state is to create conditions that would ensure socially-oriented behavior of the oil companies. The main purpose of research is to develop recommendations for the establishment of these conditions with regard to oil production.
The paper analyzes the current situation with the development of oil resources in Russia, the behavior of the oil companies in the sphere of subsoil use. The methodical approach to analyzing the behavior of companies with respect to the issues of development of oil fields in various conditions (rigidity of the state policy in the sphere of subsoil use) is provided.
It has been shown that it is necessary a balanced combination of restrictive measures and mechanisms for financial and economic incentives. The findings may be used in the formation of the institutional environment in the sphere of subsoil use.
METHODOLOGY AND METHODS OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
The purpose of this research is to identify the common elements of successful strategies in overcoming social exclusion. The success criterion is an obtaining of social recognition by people with disabilities due to their social, labor and other activities.
For the purpose of the research we performed ten biographical interviews with people with disabilities living an active lifestyle. Results of the research include a description of common elements of successful strategies of social exclusion overcoming for the following activities of respondents: labor and social activities as well as obtaining professional education. In addition to that, we have identified respondents’ objectives and how they plan their social exclusion overcoming activities and the resources they use.
The main outcome of this research is that the key for successful social exclusion overcoming by people with disabilities is their willingness to overcome social exclusion. Each successful case of social exclusion overcoming has a strategy behind it: an adequate estimation of available resources, rational choice of tools and ways to use them and tactics for external structures utilization.
ISSN 2658-5375 (Online)