Analysis of Structural Changes in the Russian Economy from 2016 to 2021 Using Input-Output Models
https://doi.org/10.25205/2542-0429-2025-25-3-5-25
Abstract
Every five years, Rosstat publishes the basic input-output tables, which cover a wide range of industries and provide a detailed reflection of the processes of production and consumption. This allows for the examination of the economy from various perspectives. However, this periodicity in updating the tables forces researchers to rely on existing structures for analyzing later periods, despite potential changes in the economic structure over the examined time frame. This can limit the accuracy and relevance of conclusions, as the dynamics of industries, economic structure, and methodologies for collecting and calculating macroeconomic indicators can significantly change over a five-year (or longer) period.
This article presents an analysis of structural changes in the Russian economy from 2016 to 2021 using basic input-output tables. Standard methods for analyzing industry structures and multiplicative analysis of inter-industry interactions are applied, allowing for a deeper understanding of dynamics and relationships between industries, as well as identifying key changes in economic development during the examined period.
The results of the structural analysis indicate that the industry structures of key macroeconomic indicators did not undergo significant changes over the five-year period, while the ratios of these indicators demonstrate an opposite trend. However, when considering the economy as a whole, no significant changes in the shares of gross value added (GVA) in output and exports are observed.
The multiplicative analysis reveals significant changes in coefficients of direct and total costs for both domestic and imported products in certain industries. Nevertheless, when analyzing the economy as a whole, no substantial differences in direct costs between 2016 and 2021 are recorded.
Keywords
input-output models,
direct and total costs,
input-output tables,
structural shifts,
comparative analysis,
industry structure
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared according to the research plan of the IEIE SB RAS, project “Tools, technologies and results of analysis, modeling and forecasting of spatial development of the socio-economic system of Russia and its individual territories” No 121040100262-7.
About the Authors
N. M. Ibragimov
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of SB RAS; Novosibirsk State University; Novosibirsk State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Naimdgnon M. Ibragimov, Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Leading Researcher, Associate Professor
Novosibirsk
A. I. Dushenin
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of SB RAS; Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Aleksandr I. Dushenin, Junior Researcher, Teacher
Novosibirsk
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For citations:
Ibragimov N.M., Dushenin A.I. Analysis of Structural Changes in the Russian Economy from 2016 to 2021 Using Input-Output Models. World of Economics and Management. 2025;25(3):5-25. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.25205/2542-0429-2025-25-3-5-25
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