Development of Tajikistan’s Manufacturing Industry: Investment Trends and Structural Shifts in the Context of Industrial Development Theories and Regional Trends

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the development of the manufacturing industry in the Republic of Tajikistan from 2018 to 2023 within the context of the national industrialization and import substitution strategy. Drawing on data from the Agency of Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan and international organizations, the study examines production dynamics, quantitative changes in the enterprise sector, and structural shifts within the industry. The methodological framework includes comparative, structural-dynamic, and comparative-analytical approaches. A detailed comparative analysis of Tajikistan’s manufacturing trajectory is conducted vis-à-vis neighboring Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The findings reveal that, unlike Kazakhstan’s resource-based orientation or Uzbekistan’s more diversified yet less dynamic model, Tajikistan demonstrates a “catch-up growth” phenomenon driven by an aggressive import substitution policy in the food processing sector and a notable increase in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The food industry is identified as playing a pivotal role, accounting for 40.7% of the manufacturing sector—one of the highest shares in the region. The article argues for a strategic shift from fragmented sectoral support toward a cluster-based development model. It also outlines key challenges and proposes strategic priorities for public authorities aimed at deepening modernization and enhancing human capital, informed by regional experiences.