Real Options Valuation of Deposits

Abstract

Income approach based on the method of discounted cash flows (DCF) seems to be the main instrument to evaluate economic efficiency of investment projects when developing oil and gas fields. However, at early stages of exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon resources, uncertainty and risks of investors are very high, which limits the use of traditional methods. It is necessary to develop valuation tools accounting high uncertainty of input data on the exploitation of oil and natural gas resources, flexibility of their development by formation of rational production strategy with volatility of the operating parameters such as the world oil prices and the size and value of oil and gas reserves. In this article presents the real options approach which accounts the potential of flexible and adaptive project management providing advantages in assessing development projects as compared to the traditional income methods. Implementation of this method is exemplified by the case of oil and gas fields in the east of the Siberian platform.