Impact Assessment of Large Infrastructure Projects on Regional Development (Based on the Example of the ESPO Project)

A broad analysis of theoretical and empirical studies of the impact of infrastructure development on economic growth has revealed both positive and negative results. The main purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the major oil pipeline project on both national and regional economic growth and economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District in particular. The methodological basis of the study is the combination of project analysis (costbenefit analysis), spatial input-output analysis with the use of optimized cross-sectoral inter-regional models, and econometric analysis. As a result, potential market capacity in some partner countries of the Asia-Pacific region (China, South Korea, Japan) has been analyzed on the basis of market analysis framework of the project. The forecast of possible volumes of oil consumption has been presented. The comprehensive evaluation of the project efficiency has been obtained by accounting tax and indirect effects (growth in overall output) arising from its implementation. The study has shown that the contribution of the oil pipeline project to the economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District is relatively insignificant; it seems to be much more significant for the development of Russia rather than the development of the District.

economic growth, regional growth, infrastructure projects, oil consumption, input-output balance, interregional relations, direct and indirect effects, public efficiency