Small serial and serial production management in unstable demand enviroument
Abstract
The work presents the methodological approach to production program of the enterprise serial engineering for the current period in the conditions of uncertainty of demand. Here are two problems with this. The first is connected with the formation of the production program of the next quar124 ter, year. Objective could be to stochastic programming, but this task is difficult. Therefore, in this paper we proposed a simple solution. On the basis of statistical historical information about the deviation of actual sales data products from predicted by Monte Carlo generated a lot of production programs. Fixed worst key performance (sales, profit etc). The difference between the values of the planned target and the settlement defines stochastic reserve, to be established at the expense of additional innovations.
The second problem is connected with the formation of the production program production in the planned month, taking into account the creation of stocks of production in the conditions when for a short period of time is difficult to build a pattern of change in the quantity demanded by month for serial production, as in some months of the year the products are not produced nor sold. To justify the level of inventories of finished products is information on deviations from the fact plan for past periods. Built function of frequency distribution of the values of deviations. This allows you to further build the methodology for determining the level of production (taking into account the reserves) and sales of products that deliver maximum economic effect from the sales in the conditions of a random process of realization of production.
About the Author
I. V. Tsomaeva
I. I. Polzunov Altai State Technical University, Barnaul
JSC «Altai Instrument-Making Plant “Rotor”», Barnaul
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Tsomaeva I.V. Small serial and serial production management in unstable demand enviroument. World of Economics and Management. 2014;14(1):117–124. (In Russ.)
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