Methodical approach to the evaluation of investment projects in oil production in conditions of uncertainty and risks
Abstract
Development of oilfield is a long term capital-intensive investment project, which is characterized by incomplete and inaccurate information about conditions of its realization. Efficiency evaluation of license area development is impossible without accounting uncertainty associated with oilproduction. The article analyzes the current state of the Russian oil industry, highlights the mainrisks affecting the activities of oil companies. Classification of risks in the qualitative and quantitative characteristics is suggested. Methods of economic efficiency evaluation of investments in oil field development in new production regions are considered, the expediency of the fuzzy set theoryapplication is shown. The task of expert systems building for efficiency evaluation of oil field development in terms of uncertainty in risks by investor is actualized. Scheme of an expert system for efficiency evaluation of oil field development using elements of theory of fuzzy sets is proposed.
About the Authors
L. V. Skopina
Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
N. E. Shubnikov
Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Skopina L.V., Shubnikov N.E. Methodical approach to the evaluation of investment projects in oil production in conditions of uncertainty and risks. World of Economics and Management. 2014;14(2):24–37. (In Russ.)
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