Correction of forecasts of interrelated currency pairs in terms of systems of balance ratios
Abstract
In this paper the problem of exchange rates forecast is logically considered a) traditionally as a task of forecast on the base of “stand-alone” equations of autoregression for each currency pair and b) as a result of forecast correction of autoregression equations system on the base of boundary conditions of balance ratios systems.
As a criterion for quality of forecast constructed with empirical models we take the sum of deficiency quadrates of forecasts estimated for deductive currency pairs. Practical approval confirmed that deductive models meet common requirements, provide accepted precision, show resistance to initial data and are free from series of deficiency of one index. However, extreme forecast errors tell that practical application of the approach offered needs further improvement.
About the Author
D. A. Gertsekovich
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Novosibirsk
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Gertsekovich D.A. Correction of forecasts of interrelated currency pairs in terms of systems of balance ratios. World of Economics and Management. 2015;15(1):60–66. (In Russ.)
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