Rational Aggregation of the Production List of the Economic Model with the Detailed Timber Complex

Abstract

The main principle of developing   specialized model complexes is based on the approach when the detailed description of the object (the core, the main body) is added by the description of the context. In addition to the above, the core of the system can be made up in turns by objects picked up from the context.  Developing  the models on separate subsystems of the economy, presented in details in the basic model, leads to creation of problems (equations)  with many variables and parameters where for the specific goals of analysis (and forecasting) it is not at all obligatory to use the full-scale model. Such redundancy is unnecessary while using this model for scenario calculations in the context of “branch ” problems.  The authors provide experimental calculations which allow evaluating the   influence of aggregation on resulting information.  Average year growth rates of production by branches of timber complex are considered as resulting information.  Closeness of decisions on these indicators proves the hypothesis about possibility and rationality of such aggregation of the economic context for the timber complex.