Problems of tax budget revenue forecasting in Russia
Abstract
The paper consider the methodological problems of forecasting of tax budget revenues in Russia. The particular attention is paid to the usage of time series analysis and to the discussion of issues related to benchmarking, «edge effects», structural and cycle components of tax revenue. It is concluded that the objective limitation for the correct and reliable long-term forecasting is the lack of sufficiently long time series of comparable data. Forecasting time horizon should correspond to the period for which trends are identified and parameters of the dynamics are estimated. Short-term forecasts have the necessary information, and they can be used in the practical work of public authorities.
About the Authors
E. A. Kolomak
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
N. A. Sentyureva
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Kolomak E.A., Sentyureva N.A. Problems of tax budget revenue forecasting in Russia. World of Economics and Management. 2015;15(3):5–10. (In Russ.)
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