An approach for forecasting development of an industry using detalisation of national economic forecast models (illustration of the forest industry)

Abstract

The obtained forecasts, which are produced by the national economy model in value terms can be used in the industry models. In this paper authors show one of the approaches how it can be done. Initially, the basic Optimization Inter-Regional Cross-Industry Model (OMMM: 40 industry, 10 regions) considers in detail one industry and other complementary industries are aggregated. In our work we consider 11 forest industries and 12 non-forest industries, which form a national economic background. Aggregation is performed on the optimal solution of the original base model. Thus, in accordance with the theory of mutual problems the model is modified into production transportation problem with the criterion of cost minimization. Based on this model, we calculate external load on the industry in the value terms.

Using information from industries, Statistics departments, and expert estimates, this external load is translated from value terms into the physical indicators, which is then used in the form of external demand in the proposed industrial model. Industrial model has 20 types of forest materials and products, and includes a possibility of inter-regional transport, as well as export and import of forest products. A separate block describes the use of existing capacities and the possibility of their growth. The forecast which is built using such model takes into account all national economic links and can be used in the development of the Development Strategy of industrial complex in the medium term.