The Estimation of Various Shocks Influence on the Dynamics of Russian Macroeconomic Indicators in 2014–2018
https://doi.org/10.25205/2542-0429-2021-21-4-24-46
Abstract
stract In this paper, we analyze the influence of various macroeconomic shocks caused by anti-Russian sanctions and a sharp decrease in the hydrocarbon prices in the middle of the last decade. We estimate the total loss in the economy and identify the shocks that provoked the decline in GDP and the increase in inflation from 2014 to 2018 using the DSGE approach and the obtained historical decompositions. According to the calculations, the inflation growth from 2014 to 2015 can be interpreted as the sum of the adverse effects of the change in household preferences, and the shock in oil prices. The observed GDP decline from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015 is explained by the synergistic effect of monetary policy shocks and the sharp drop in oil prices. According to our calculations, the total loss in the economy due to the described shocks in real terms is equal to 6.4 trillion rubles in 2011 prices.
Supporting agencies: The publication is prepared within the project “Methods and models of Russian economy development strategy justification under changing macroeconomic reality”, no. 0260-2021-0008 according to the re-search plan of the IEIE SB RAS.
About the Authors
Yu. A. Dzyuba
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yuriy A. Dzyuba, Postgraduate Student, Junior Researcher
Novosibirsk
Dmitriy Kolyuzhnov
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dmitriy V. Kolyuzhnov, Researcher, Associate Professor
Novosibirsk
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Review
For citations:
Dzyuba Yu.A., Kolyuzhnov D. The Estimation of Various Shocks Influence on the Dynamics of Russian Macroeconomic Indicators in 2014–2018. World of Economics and Management. 2021;21(4):24-46. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.25205/2542-0429-2021-21-4-24-46
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