Kuzbass-2035: the territory as a driver of economic growth

Abstract

The article considers the necessity to transform the existing economic development model of Kuzbass – the leading coal mining center in Russia – due to the increasing external risks, the problems of the coal sector in Russia as well as the adaptation of the region to a new reality. The author identifies five key factors of influence: decarbonization of the world economy; a fall in coal prices; the COVID-19 pandemic that has triggered the global crisis; long-term reduction of coal consumption in the Russian Federation; the formation of new coal mining centers in eastern Russia. As a result, based on a change in coal production in the region, three scenarios for the development of the coal industry and the economy of the Kemerovo region as a whole have been proposed. According to the author, with the existing regional model, the most likely scenario for Kuzbass in 10-15 years is a shock scenario, i.e. due to the decrease in global demand for hydrocarbons coal production in Kuzbass is expected to drop by 70-100 million tons per year, which could provoke a deep socio-economic crisis in the region. To avoid negative economic and social outcomes, it seems advisable to immediately start renovation of the Kuzbass economy with active participation of the state on the basis of a new reading of the model of territorial production complexes (TPC) which was successfully implemented in the region in the 20th century. The role of the basic industries of modern TPCs of the Kemerovo region can be assumed by clean coal technologies, petroleum chemistry and oil refining. At the same time, the author emphasizes that the restart of the model for the development of regional economy is possible only if the businesses (the owner of production assets), the government and the society reach the agreement and share full responsibility for the renovation processes of the resource territory.