Estimation of Losses of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product Resulting from Inflationary Processes
https://doi.org/10.25205/2542-0429-2025-25-1-5-23
Abstract
The stability of any country’s economic situation is one of the reasons accelerating its economic development. In turn, the relatively stable and predictable price growth rate leads to the stabilisation of the national economy. Economic stability allows companies to plan their activities for a lengthy period and make investments with high paybacks. In this regard, the Central banks of many countries pursue a policy of controlling inflation. However, such measures of state governance often lead to increased interest rates and constrained availability of loans for final borrowers. This raises the problem of estimating the positive effect of disinflation. The present article partially addresses this issue, considering the impact of the price growth rate on Russia’s GDP. The study aims to estimate the losses of the domestic GDP caused by inflation processes in the period from 2013 to 2021. To achieve this goal, the statistics for the specified period by Russian regions were collected; in addition, the econometric toolkit based on panel data was used. In particular, several models with fixed effects were constructed and classified by region and time. The research results show that moderate inflation (less than 4% per year) has no impact on the GDP growth rate in Russia. At the same time, an acceleration of inflation to 10% and above (as it was registered in 20142015) can lead to a slowdown in Russia’s economic growth by more than one percentage point.
About the Authors
D. V. Shimanovsky
Perm State National Research University Perm
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dmitry V. Shimanovsky, Candidate of Science (Economics), Associate Professor
SCOPUS ID: 57215934786;
Researcher ID: G-8533-2017
Perm
V. M. Yakusheva
Perm State National Research University Perm
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vitaliya M. Yakusheva, Master Student of 1th year education
Perm
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Review
For citations:
Shimanovsky D.V., Yakusheva V.M. Estimation of Losses of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product Resulting from Inflationary Processes. World of Economics and Management. 2025;25(1):5-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.25205/2542-0429-2025-25-1-5-23
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