Forecasting the Development of the Russian Economy: Methods and Results

Several organizations are involved in forecasting the dynamics of the Russian economy, ranging from government bodies (Ministry of Economic Development, Bank of Russia) to foreign centers (World Bank, International Monetary Fund, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods used by organizations to develop scenarios for the development of the Russian economy, as well as a comparative analysis of the results of medium-term forecasting for key macro indicators. 
For constructing short- and medium-term forecasts, the most preferred approaches are DSGE models, balance-econometric models and time series models. For long-term forecasting, an input-output approach and tools based on the Solow-Swann model are used. In addition, some organizations use consensus forecasts, which are formed on the basis of expert opinions of leading specialists in the field of macroeconomic forecasting. 
The results of the work indicate that the estimates of macroeconomic organizations are quite similar in the forecast dynamics of real GDP (the average annual growth rate corresponds to approximately 2 %). In addition, each of the organizations predicts an increase in the capital intensity of the Russian economy by 2026. 
The results of the work can serve as an information base for coordination with the results of the MRIOM being developed at the IEIE SB RAS, which will reduce labor intensity and improve the quality of selecting model scenarios.

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