Heterogeneous and Asymmetric Response of Municipalities of the Novosibirsk region to the shocks of 2020-2022

The paper examines the reaction of municipalities in the Novosibirsk region to the shocks of the COVID pandemic in 2020 and the second wave of sanctions in 2022 and tests the hypothesis of the universality of the adaptive properties of their economies. The study of the spatial heterogeneity of the response to external shocks allows us to assess the overall stability of the economic system. The indicator of the municipality’s economic activity was the indicator of the own production, the provision of works and services. Based on this indicator the reaction to the shock and the restoration of business activity of the territory after the shock were evaluated. Both the response to the shocks and the recovery of the municipalities’ economies have been extremely heterogeneous. The impact of restrictions caused by coronavirus was stronger compared to the 2022 sanctions, both in terms of output reduction and the level of heterogeneity of the compensatory response. Maps showing the distribution of shock effects across municipalities and recovery from them did not reveal spatial patterns. The reaction ofboth the conditional “center” and the “periphery” of the region was heterogeneous, large spatial clusters with similar dynamics were not distinguished as well. A comparison of the degree of shock and the level of recovery after shocks did not confirm the assumption of universal sustainability of municipalities, adaptation characteristics differed, and many territories demonstrated an asymmetric response to the shocks of 2020-2022. The correlation analysis did not reveal significant dependencies of shock resistance and subsequent recovery on the economic, structural and institutional characteristics of the territory. Obviously, the main role in overcoming crises was played by subjective factors: personal initiative and entrepreneurship of the population and local authorities. The asymmetry of reactions to the shocks of 2020-2022 may be because the adaptation mechanisms tested during the coronavirus were involved during the sanctions period. The need to develop a sustainable development model was realized where the negative effects of the pandemic were stronger.

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