On One Approach to Constructing a Basic Model as an Information Basis for the OMMM-TEK Model Complex

Abstract

Based on the experience of using an optimization input-output inter- regional model with a detailed energy sector (OMMM-TEK), the problem of cyclical information updating in the models of this type is considered. It is proposed to solve it from the point of view of forming a non contradictory information environment of the model complex, which consists of two forecast models and a base year model. The latter model defines a system of cost indicators linked to the prices of the base year, in which the decisions of forecast models are measured. The conducted comparative analysis of the industry nomenclature of the model and the “inputs − output” tables allows us to see the sources of contradictions of the information environment and to quantitatively assess their extent. In the absence of regional «input-input» tables as the main information source, when there are only «input-output» tables of the Russian Federation, the process of «regionalization» of the tables is proposed to be carried out in the model of a base year, using the structural elements of the OMMM-TEK model complex. To do this, an iterative convergent process of optimal solutions to the base model is organized using a number of quantitative criteria. Thus, in parallel with the «regionalization» of the input-output tables, the problem of forming a non contradictory information environment for transferring balanced parameters and variables of the base model to the forecast model is solved