Uneven Development of the Spatial Economy of the Russian Federation and Differentiation of Growth Factors: Period 2008-2021

The work conducts a study of growth factors and the reasons for the uneven development of the federal districts of the Russian Federation in the period 20082021, which includes a retrospective analysis of the structures of the main macroeconomic indicators by region, decomposition of GRP growth in current prices for components, which, in turn, also differentiated by factors, «shift-share» analysis and distribution of the country’s GRP growth by federal districts and industries.

As a spatial section, the Central Federal District, Northwestern Federal District, Southern Federal District, North Caucasian Federal District, Volga Federal District and Ural Federal District without the Tyumen region, forming the European part of the Russian Federation, and the Tyumen region, Siberian Federal District and Far Eastern Federal District, forming the Asian part of the Russian Federation, are used. To obtain more detailed results, the study is carried out for the periods 2008–2015, 2015–2019. and 20192021. The work shows the change in the trend of spatial development of the Russian economy in the period 20192021. If for 2008–2015 and 2015–2019. There is rapid growth in the Asian part of the Russian Federation, then for 20192021. the growth in real GRP of the western regions is 5 times higher than the corresponding figure in Asia, which is commensurate with the disproportions in labor productivity growth. In addition, for 2008–2015 and 2015–2019. the contribution of the Asian part of the Russian Federation to the economic growth of the country is approximately 30 %, while for 20192021. there is a reduction of up to 7 %, caused by a decrease in mining volumes.

1. Voskoboynikov I., Gimpelson V. Productivity growth, structural change and informality: the case of Russia. Moscow, HSE Press, 2015, 47 p. (Series. Labor market problems) (in Russ.)

2. Ibragimov N. M., Dushenin A. I. Uneven Development of Spatial Economy of the Russian Federation and Differentiation of Growth Factors. World of Economics and Management, 2021, vol. 21, no. 2, p. 5–29. (in Russ.) DOI 10.25205/2542-0429-2021-21-2-5-29

3. Ibragimov N. M., Dushenin А. I. Uneven Development of the Spatial Economy of the Russian Federa-tion and Differentiation of Growth Factors: Period 2016–2019. World of Economics and Management, 2022, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 5–33. (in Russ.) DOI 10.25205/2542-0429-2022-22-1-5-33

4. Malkina M. Yu. Economic growth and structural changes in the Russian economy. Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2015, no. 33, pp. 2–14. (in Russ.)

5. Mikheeva N. N. Macroeconomic effects of structural shifts in economy of regions/ Region: Economics & Sociology, 2018. No. 4 (100), p. 42–68.

6. Bosworth B. P., Triplett J. E. The Early 21st Century U.S. Productivity Expansion Is Still in Services. International Productivity Monitor, 2007, vol. 14, pp. 319.

7. Esteban J. Regional convergence in Europe and the industry mix: a shift-share analysis. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2000, vol. 30 (3), pp. 353–364.

8. Melnikova L. V. Spatial Analysis of the Dynamics of Structural Shifts in the Economies of Russian Regions in 2004-2019. Regional Research of Russia, 2021, vol. 11 (4), pp. 454–463.

9. Nordhaus W. D. Productivity Growth and the New Economy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002, vol. 2, pp. 211–244.