The Impact of External and Internal Economic Factors on Import and Export of Russia

The paper describes the results of an econometric analysis of the influence of external and internal economic factors on the indicators of Russia’s foreign trade. In most cases, articles concerning the dynamics and volumes of imports and exports of Russia study the impact of prices for oil, gas and other mineral products on international markets. In this study, a number of estimated parameters affecting Russia’s foreign trade are expanded. Based on the theory of general economic equilibrium, in the analysis was included the parameters of the labor market and analyzed their mutual relationship with exports and imports in the Russian economy. The paper presents an assessment of the parameters of the constructed regression equations and provides a meaningful analysis of the numerical results obtained. When evaluating the numerical characteristics of regression equations for exports and imports, the parameters related to the labor market turned out to be statistically significant. It is shown that the increase in unemployment negatively affects the volume of imports and exports. An increase in the level of wages leads to an increase of imports and has a positive effect on the dynamics of the production of goods and services for export, provided that there is adequate demand on the world market. It also follows from the above mentioned results that an increase in the level of wages through an increase in aggregate demand can be an impetus to economic growth, including export-oriented industries.

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