An Approach to Highlight the Dynamics in OMMM-Class Models (By the Example of OMMM-TEK)

Abstract

The article presents approaches to function modes of a multi-period model with direct recursion (OMMM class model) based on the application of multi-regional I-O model of vector optimization with a detailed representation of the energy sector and of two forecast periods (OMMM-TEK). Long-term exploitation of the model complex leads to the problem of the first forecast period, i.e. with each year following the basic year (which precedes the beginning of the forecast period and sets the system of measuring for the model solutions (prices)) an increasing part of the period becomes retrospective. Consequently, the trajectories for the dynamics of the model indicators obtained from the solution tend to encompass both the retrospective and the forecast parts of the first period; as a result, contradiction arises between the “smoothness” of the trajectories obtained from the given initial hypotheses and the actual dynamics of the first period. To eliminate the problem, a frequent but not periodic change of the basic year is usually carried out, and thus the forecasted periods and system of value indicators (prices) of model decisions also change. To preserve the basic year, the framework of forecast periods and the system of value measuring of model solutions for a long time interval a different approach is proposed, which requires a stage of periodic adaptation of the solutions of the first forecast period model to the actual dynamics, i.e. the division of the optimal solution into two parts which cover the dynamically changing (with each subsequent year) periods: an actual and a predicted one, with the correction of the predicted solution considering actual dynamics while keeping the forecast horizon more or less unchanged.