EXPERIENCE OF USING A DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITH FUZZY PARAMETERS FOR FORECASTING THE ECONOMY OF BURYATIA

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to test in practical predictive calculations the dynamic input-output model (DIOM) with fuzzy parameters constructed by the authors for the economy of the Republic of Buryatia (RB) with fuzzy parameters and a study of the reliability of the forecast indicators obtained with its use and stability of the dynamics of the main indicators of the region's economy in relation to the variation of investment in fixed assets and net export. The article also describes the concepts of fuzzy set, the coincidence of fuzzy sets, the reliability factor of the coincidence of two fuzzy indicators and the coefficient of stability of economic indicators, which are used in forecasting the development of the Buryatia economy. The article emphasizes the application of the fuzzy-sets approach to forecasting the regional economy. As a result of the forecast calculations, the reliability of the forecast of the regional gross output in relation to the variation in investments in fixed assets and the net export in the economy of the Republic of Belarus in the period 2018-2021 is shown to be quite high. When moving to higher growth rates of investment in an optimistic variant, the reliability of the regional gross output forecast relative to the investment variation is reduced. At the same time, the reliability of the forecast for the variation in the net export increases. Forecast calculations showed very low stability of the dynamics of the gross output of the economy of the Republic of Buryatia in relation to changes in investments in fixed assets. This indicates the possibility of a sharp acceleration of economic growth in the Republic of Butyatia due to a significant increase in investment.