woeamМир экономики и управленияWorld of Economics and Management2542-04292658-5375Новосибирский национальный исследовательский государственный университетwoeam-400Research ArticleМИКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ: МЕТОДЫ И РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫMICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS: METHODS AND RESULTSАнализ факторов динамики цены первичного никеляAnalysis of factors of primary nickel prices dynamicsСоколовАлександр ВитальевичSokolovA. V.

Кандидат экономических наук, заведующий сектором, доцент

alsokolov@ieie.nsc.ruБородинаАнна ВладимировнаBorodinaA. V.

Магистр

alsokolov@ieie.nsc.ruИнститут экономики и организации промышленного производства СО РАН, Новосибирск Новосибирский национальный исследовательский государственный университет, НовосибирскРоссияInstitute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Novosibirsk Novosibirsk State University, NovosibirskRussian FederationНовосибирский национальный исследовательский государственный университет, Новосибирск Университет Пантеон Сорбонна (Париж I), FRРоссияNovosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, FRRussian Federation20142401202214386–104Copyright © Соколов А.В., Бородина А.В., 20142014Соколов А.В., Бородина А.В.Sokolov A.V., Borodina A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://woeam.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/400

Рассматривается  влияние  группы факторов –  внутренних и  внешних  для  рынка первичного никеля,  относящихся к реальной и фиктивной экономике, – на цену металла. Анализируется взаимосвязь динамики цен группы основных цветных металлов. Колебания баланса производства и потребления никеля, изменение издержек производства металлов стали играть меньшую роль в формировании цены, чем несколько десятилетий назад: на первый план выходят другие факторы, характеризующие в первую очередь спекулятивную составляющую цены. С середины нулевых годов основное влияние на цены основных цветных металлов оказывают уже глобальные макро-экономические факторы,  характеризующие фиктивную  экономику,  а  также  изменения,  касающиеся  процедуры проведения  торгов на Лондонской бирже металлов. Рассматриваются различные модельные подходы  к  анализу динамики  основных  показателей  рынков  цветных  металлов.  Приводятся  результаты  моделирования  мировых объемов производства первичного никеля и рынка никеля (потребления и импорта) США.

The influence of a group of factors – internal and external for the primary nickel market and related to the real and fictitious economy – on the price of the metal is scrutinized in the article. The dependence between the prices dynamics of the basic non-ferrous metals was analyzed. Fluctuations in the balance of nickel consumption and production, changes in production costs of metals started to play a less important role; while other factors, which most of all characterize the speculative component of the price, came to the fore. From the mid 2000’s it is global macroeconomic factors, which characterize the fictitious economy and changes connected with bidding on the London Metal Exchange, that impact the prices of non-ferrous metals. Different modeling approaches for analyzing dynamics of the primary indexes are examined in the article. The results of the modeling of the volumes of the world production and the nickel market (consumption and import) in the USA are presented.

металлургияцветные металлыникельценаЛондонская биржа металловмоделированиебаланс производства и потребленияспекулятивный фактормакроэкономические факторыmetallurgynon-ferrous metalsnickelpriceLondon metal exchangemodelingconsumption and production balancespeculative factormacroeconomic factorsReferencesИгревская Л. В. Никель // Минеральное сырье: от недр до рынка. М.: Научный мир, 2011. Т. 2: Цветные металлы. Алюминий, медь, никель, олово, свинец, цинк.Igrevskaya L. V. Nickel. Minerals: From the Bowels to the Market. Moscow, Scientific world Publ., 2011. Vol. 2. Non-ferrous metals. Aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, lead, zinc. (in Russ.)Соколов В. М., Соколов А. В. Образование и распределение горной ренты в цветной металлургии. Новосибирск: Изд-во СО РАН, Филиал «Гео», 2001.Sokolov V. M., Sokolov A. V. Formation and Distribution of Mining Rent in Non-Ferrous Metallurgy. Novosibirsk, Publishing House Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Science. Geo, 2001. (in Russ.)Tollin S. Outlook for Global Nickel Market in 2012/2013 // China International Ni & Co Industry Conference 2012. URL: http://www.ex-silver.com/huiyi/admin/ewebeditor/uploadfile/20121120123117358.pdfTollin S. Outlook for Global Nickel Market in 2012/2013. China International Ni & Co Industry Conference. 2012. URL: http://www.ex-silver.com/huiyi/admin/ewebeditor/uploadfile/20121120123117358.pdfPariser H. Nickel the Bedeviled Metal Global Markets 2013 & Beyond // 2013 PDAC Convention: Commodities and Market Outlook. Toronto, 2013. URL: http://www.boldventuresinc.com/news_pdf/uploaded/2013-Mar3-PDAC-Pariser-Nickel-Presentation.pdfPariser H. Nickel the Bedeviled Metal Global Markets 2013 & Beyond. 2013 PDAC Convention: Commodities and Market Outlook. Toronto, 2013. URL: http://www.boldventuresinc.com/news_pdf/uploaded/2013-Mar3-PDAC-Pariser-Nickel-Presentation.pdfЗандер Е. В. Алюминиевая промышленность России: развитие в условиях конкуренции. Красноярск, 2005.Zander E. V. Aluminum Industry of Russia: Development and Competition. Krasnoyarsk, 2005. (in Russ.)Oh S. Testing of Market Efficiency in International Metal Markets // Geosystem Engineering. 2010. Vol. 13. Iss. 2. P. 53–55. URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/12269328.2010.10541309#.U4skIvl_vloOh S. Testing of Market Efficiency in International Metal Markets. Geosystem Engineering, 2010, vol. 13, iss. 2, p. 53–55. URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/12269328.2010.10541309#.U4skIvl_vloYoung A., Wiens D. Time Series Analysis of Aluminium Prices and the London Metal Exchange Index // Mathematical and Statistical Science of University of Alberta. URL: http:// www.stat.ualberta.ca/~wiens/stat479/479project_ay.pdfYoung A., Wiens D. Time Series Analysis of Aluminium Prices and the London Metal Exchange Index. Mathematical and Statistical Science of University of Alberta. URL: http://www.stat.ualberta.ca/~wiens/stat479/479project_ay.pdfPanas E. Long Memory and Chaotic Models of Prices of the London Metal Exchange // Resources Policy. 2001. Vol. 27. P. 235–246. URL: ftp://ftp.elet.polimi.it/users/Carlo.Piccardi/VarieCda/ArticoliStudenti/e13.pdfPanas E. Long Memory and Chaotic Models of Prices of the London Metal Exchange. Resources Policy, 2001, vol. 27, p. 235–246. URL: ftp://ftp.elet.polimi.it/users/Carlo.Piccardi/VarieCda/ArticoliStudenti/e13.pdfАрлюк Б. И. Перспективы мировых рынков первичного алюминия и глинозема // Цветные металлы. 2010. № 3.Arlyuk B. I. Prospect of world markets of primary aluminum and alumina. Non-Ferrous Metals, 2010, no. 3. (in Russ.)Маланичев А. Г., Воробьев П. В. Прогнозирование мировых цен на сталь // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2011. № 3.Malanichev A. G., Vorobyev P. B. Forecasting world steel prices. Problems of Forecasting, 2011, no. 3. (in Russ.)Figuerola-Ferretti I., Gonzalo J. Modelling and Measuring Price Discovery for Precious Metals // UIBCongres. URL: https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=simposio2008&paper_id=151Figuerola-Ferretti I., Gonzalo J. Modelling and Measuring Price Discovery for Precious Metals. UIB Congres. URL: https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=simposio2008&paper_id=151Otto S. A Speculative Efficiency Analysis of the London Metal Exchange in a Multi-Contract Framework // International Journal of Economics and Finance. Vol. 3. No. 1. P. 3–16. URL: http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/60255619/speculative-efficiency-analysis-londonmetal-exchange-multi-contract-frameworkOtto S. A Speculative Efficiency Analysis of the London Metal Exchange in a Multi-Contract Framework. International Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 3, no. 1, p. 3–16. URL:Pichler E., Boheim M., Firgo M. The Role of Financial Speculation on Markets for Industrial Metals // Machinery & Metalware. An Organization of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber. URL: http://www.fmmi.at/uploads/media/Spekulationsstudie_2012_01.pdfhttp://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/60255619/speculative-efficiency-analysis-london-metalexchange-multi-contract-frameworkСоколов А. В., Соколов В. М. Россия на мировом рынке меди // ЭКО. 2000. № 5.Pichler E., Boheim M., Firgo M. The Role of Financial Speculation on Markets for Industrial Metals. Machinery & Metalware. An Organization of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber. URL: http://www.fmmi.at/uploads/media/Spekulationsstudie_2012_01.pdfChen M., Clements K., Gao G. Three Facts about World Metal Prices // Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. Australia National University. URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/events/2012/conference/ken-clements-paper.pdfSokolov V. M., Sokolov A. V. Russia on the World Copper Market. ECO, 2000, no. 5. (in Russ.)Российский статистический ежегодник. 2005: Стат. сб. / Росстат. М., 2005.Chen M., Clements K., Gao G. Three Facts about World Metal Prices. Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. Australia National University. URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/events/2012/conference/ken-clements-paper.pdfРоссийский статистический ежегодник. 2009: Стат. сб. / Росстат. М., 2009.Statistical Yearbook of Russia (2005). Rosstat. Moscow, 2005. (in Russ.)Российский статистический ежегодник. 2012: Стат. сб. / Росстат. М., 2012.Statistical Yearbook of Russia (2009). Rosstat. Moscow, 2009. (in Russ.)Bulut B. Forecasting the Prices of Non-ferrous Metals with GARCH Models & Volatility Spillover from World Oil Market to Non-ferrous Metal Markets // A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University. URL: http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612393/index.pdfStatistical Yearbook of Russia (2012). Rosstat. Moscow, 2012. (in Russ.)Hammoudeh S., Yuan Y. Metal Volatility in Presence of Oil and Interest Rate Shocks // Energy Econometrics. 2008. Vol. 30. P. 606–620. URL: http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/maro_preciousvol.pdfBulut B. Forecasting the Prices of Non-ferrous Metals with GARCH Models & Volatility Spillover from World Oil Market to Non-ferrous Metal Markets. A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University. URL: http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612393/index.pdfMorales L. Do Precious Metals Markets Influence Stock Markets? A Volatility Approach // 8th International Business Research Conference. Dubai, UAE, 2008. URL: http://arrow.dit.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1005&context=buschacconHammoudeh S., Yuan Y. Metal Volatility in Presence of Oil and Interest Rate Shocks. Energy Econometrics, 2008, vol. 30, p. 606–620. URL: http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/maro_preciousvol.pdfZevallos M., Carpio C. Metal Prices, Stock Returns and Stock Market Volatility // Banco Central de Reserva del Peru. Encuentro de Economistas. Noviembre. 2010. URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Proyeccion-Institucional/Encuentro-de-Economistas/EE-2010-XXVIII/EE-2010-D3-Zevallos-DelCarpio.pdfMorales L. Do Precious Metals Markets Influence Stock Markets? A Volatility Approach. 8th International Business Research Conference. Dubai, UAE, 2008. URL: http://arrow.dit.ie/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1005&context=buschacconBatten J., Ciner C., Lucey M. The Macroeconomic Determinants of Volatility in Precious Metals Markets // Resources Policy. 2010. Vol. 35. P. 65–71. URL: http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/maro_preciousvol.pdfZevallos M., Carpio C. Metal Prices, Stock Returns and Stock Market Volatility. Banco Central de Reserva del Peru. Encuentro de Economistas. Noviembre. 2010. URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Proyeccion-Institucional/Encuentro-de-Economistas/EE-2010-XXVIII/EE-2010-D3-Zevallos-DelCarpio.pdfApergis N., Chrosto C., Payn J. Precious metals, stocks, and the macroeconomic environment: a FAVAR model approach // Applied Financial Economics. Vol. 24. No. 10. URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09603107.2014.899668#.U4sijfl_vloBatten J., Ciner C., Lucey M. The Macroeconomic Determinants of Volatility in Precious Metals Markets. Resources Policy, 2010, vol. 35, p. 65–71. URL: http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/maro_preciousvol.pdfApergis N., Chrosto C., Payn J. Precious metals, stocks, and the macroeconomic environment: a FAVAR model approach. Applied Financial Economics, 2014, vol. 24, no. 10. URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09603107.2014.899668#.U4sijfl_vloApergis N., Chrosto C., Payn J. Precious metals, stocks, and the macroeconomic environment: a FAVAR model approach. Applied Financial Economics, 2014, vol. 24, no. 10. URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09603107.2014.899668#.U4sijfl_vlo

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.